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May 16, 2019 May 16, 2019 May 16, 2019 May 16, 2019
Dracarys
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20190516/storm-train.png
Hey, you folks know the particulars of the non-particulars for the next 5-6 days,
the certainty of the uncertainty, the uncertainty of the certainty. And bell
ringing won't help here either. Friday out west, Saturday morning into central
and eastern OK, then POSSIBLY again Saturday afternoon, then Monday night into
Tuesday, with Monday -- at least at first, second, and third glance through fuzzy
goggles -- looking to be the worst day. And anything could evolve from that
statement above into something completely different. Spelled out by the SPC
outlooks from last night and this morning.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20190516/spc-friday-outlook.gif
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20190516/spc-saturday-outlook.gif
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20190516/spc-monday-outlook.gif
Much of these outlooks are based on "conditional" factors. Friday has problems
but if storms do form, significant severe weather is possible.
Here's a bit more explanation of the near-unexplainable Saturday risk from the
NWS office in Norman:
"There are several different scenarios that could be possible Saturday.
One is that the showers/storms Friday night/early Saturday will disrupt/
stabilize the airmass over the fa enough that it will be difficult for
severe storms to develop. The second is that the activity will continue
throughout the day but enough instability, etc will develop for some
of the storms to become severe. The third is that the
overnight/morning activity moves out of the area soon enough that
the airmass over the area is able to recover. The third scenario has
the highest potential for severe weather but also seems like the
least likely of the 3 scenarios to occur, for now. With the
uncertainties, the potential for all severe weather hazards are
still possible, although large hail and damaging winds seem like the
most likely, if severe storms occur."
Sort of the same thing for Monday. So what do we have that is a bit more
certain? Well, the amount of moisture in the atmosphere, and the potential for
heavy rains. Check out the 7-day rain forecast.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20190516/7day-rain-forecast.gif
ZOUNDS! I'll ask again, even as these numbers have grown since I last showed
them to you...where are we going to put it?
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20190516/MonthlyReservoirStorage.png
Keystone is 25 feet above their normal pool, nearly overflowing their flood
pool. Fort Gibson and Pine Creek are also over 20 feet into their flood pools.
Kaw Lake is 35 feet above, for crying out loud!
Think it gets better from there? Think again. "THINK AGAIN?" How cliche. But
still...
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20190516/may23-29-precip-outlook.gif
Increased odds of above normal precipitation in late May? Not good. At least
not THIS May. May 2011? Sure. Not this May. I suggest we start to keep an eye
on the May rain totals. We may start to think about records. We're already
seeing our 13th wettest May 1-16 statewide average since at least 1921.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20190516/May1-16-stats.png
See that last column, "Wettest on Record?" 2015 is tops statewide for that period
with an average of 6.51 inches. That month went on to shatter the record for
the wettest month (ANY month) in state history with a statewide average of
14.44 inches. I don't think we'll reach that incredible mark, but a top-10 May
finish is possibly possible.
Here we go!
Gary McManus
State Climatologist
Oklahoma Mesonet
Oklahoma Climatological Survey
(405) 325-2253
gmcmanus@mesonet.org
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