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. . . Ticker for November 15, 2018 . . .
MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... November 15, 2018 November 15, 2018 November 15, 2018 November 15, 2018 Out of the frozen pan Hey, some places in Oklahoma forgot to freeze last night! http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20181115/todays-lows.png Okay, ONE place...Cheyenne way out in far western Oklahoma managed to stay above freezing this morning with a low of 36 degrees. That's due to the Cheyenne Mesonet site being a bit higher in the local terrain, so it pokes up above the shallow layer of cold air (hence the term "inversion poking" to describe this phenomenon...Medicine Park is another notorious inversion poker). At any rate, our ride on the arctic express will stop for a few days, but let's take a look back and the journey using the Mesonet's hours below freezing maps. I'll show ya hours at or below 32, 28 and 24 degrees just for fun. The smaller grey (I prefer the UK spelling of that color, Guvnor!) numbers show the lowest temperature reached over the period of the last week or so. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20181115/hours-below-freezing.png http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20181115/hours-below-28.png http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20181115/hours-below-24.png So the entire state has spent at least 24 hours below freezing at this point. Allergy sufferers rejoice! Looks like Eva is the unsurprising winner of the lowest temperature of 7 degrees, and Boise City gets the prize for longest duration below freezing at 101 hours. Hours below 28 and 24 degrees diminish accordingly, but are still unusually large for this time of year. This is more January-ish than mid-November. The snow (WHICH WAS NOT THE FIRST SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON FOR THE STATE...that honor goes to the Panhandle back on Oct. 14, with more falling on Halloween) that fell across northern Oklahoma didn't dent the current running deficits much over the last 30 days. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20181115/30days.meso.png http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20181115/30days.norm_pct.png http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20181115/30days.norm_dep.png This is a dry time of the year, approaching the driest three months of the year for Dec-Feb, so any deficits means it's REALLY dry, but not to alarming related to normal. The problem is we already have a bit of drought and dry conditions plaguing northern Oklahoma, as evidenced by the latest Drought Monitor map. Only 2% of the state is in drought, but that area has been in drought for quite some time with little relief. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20181115/20181113_OK_trd.png There's not much help on the horizon, if that horizon is limited to 7 days. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20181115/7day-rain-forecast.gif Maybe into next week, but that's iffy at best. The CPC outlook for next week shows increased odds of above normal precip, but again, it's a dry time of the year, so possibly nothing to get excited about. Possibly warm too. Possibly a wet Thanksgiving, but not a frozen one. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20181115/nov22-28-temp-forecast.gif http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20181115/nov22-28-precip-forecast.gif Let's look down the road at the CPC December and December-February outlooks. Nothing earth-shattering here for Oklahoma. Warmth across the West possibly bleeds into the Panhandle for both periods. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20181115/Dec-temp-outlook.gif http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20181115/Dec-Feb-temp-outlook.gif The moisture outlooks are mixed. For December, not much except for possibly drier than normal across the eastern third of Oklahoma. Looking at the entire winter period, they see increased odds for above normal precip across far western Oklahoma, sort of a classical El Nino look to the map. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20181115/Dec-precip-outlook.gif http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20181115/Dec-Feb-precip-outlook.gif All the white "EC" areas are punts, meaning equal chances of above-, below- or near-normal conditions. In other words, climatology. The seasonal drought outlook doesn't see drought developing in the state, which is good. It does see persistence of that drought that exists in northeastern Oklahoma, however. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20181115/Nov-Feb-drought-outlook.png With El Nino imminent (still waiting on the atmospheric response...the sea surface temperatures are playing along already), we will have to wait and see if it has greater influence on our weather. It's predicted to be a weak El Nino (small chances it could reach moderate strength). Weak El Nino events can sometimes bring us drier than normal weather, so that will bear watching. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20181018/weak_ok_cd.png We have a ton of overgrowth of vegetation thanks to our wet and mild fall, so we don't want to have a mega-fire for the fourth year in a row. Another thing that bears watching. Gary McManus State Climatologist Oklahoma Mesonet Oklahoma Climatological Survey (405) 325-2253 gmcmanus@mesonet.org ================================================== The OCS/Mesonet Ticker https://ticker.mesonet.org/ To subscribe or unsubscribe from the Ticker or for questions about the Ticker or its content Phone or Email the Ticker Manager at OCS Phone: 405-325-2253 Email: ticker@mesonet.org --------------------------------------------------- -C- Copyright 2024 Oklahoma Climatological Survey ===================================================