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May 15, 2019 May 15, 2019 May 15, 2019 May 15, 2019
STAY WEATHER AWARE MOTHER HARPER!
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20190515/spc-friday-outlook.png
Mrs. Uh-Wiggins, please prepare the Tudball Company Severe Weather Safety Plan
for this weekend and early next week. Yes, we talked about it Monday and now
we've made it into the SPC Day 3 Outlook range when we get a bit more clarity
about a storm system that is still very unclear. Still offshore, even, meaning
it's not well sampled by our network of weather observation platforms. Therefore,
still a lot of questions. We've shown this graphic many times, but it gives us a
really good illustration of why it's still too far out to give specifics.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20151123/forecasting-chaos.png
However, given the forecast upper-air configurations starting this weekend and
through next week, and a series of storm systems set to move across our area, we
should see our old friend Mr. Dryline set up out west and fire off storms. And
given said configuration of the jet stream and lower-level winds, that means a
chance for discrete, rotating supercells at times, which means big hail, high
winds, and a chance for tornadoes. Can you use "that" and "which," both with
commas, in the same sentence? Remind me to look that up later. But back on point,
before you all distracted me with your grammar question (I heard ya!), SPC is
already mentioning the chance for those severe weather hazards starting on
Friday, along with the needed language on uncertainty:
" ...Southern Plains...
Strong instability will develop along the dryline with daytime
heating and dewpoints increasing into the mid 60s F. A capping
inversion will exist east of the dryline, with development expected
where heating is strongest. Ample deep-layer shear along with
increasing SRH late in the day and overnight will support supercells
capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Storms may not move
very far east until overnight when a larger complex of storms is
forecast from southwest TX into southwest OK, with all modes of
severe possible."
Then we get to sweat Saturday out, hoping all along that the storms overnight
will calm the atmosphere down enough to not allow for a more serious, widespread
area of severe weather. SPC gives us another "slight risk" outlook for a large
area of the Southern Plains on Saturday, but remember Friday's outlook started
out as one of these 15% yellow areas on Day 5 as well.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20190515/spc-saturday-outlook.gif
After that we should calm down for a good 24-48 hours until Monday comes around.
Then we have another storm system (even farther out in the pacific currently)
that a lot of forecasters think looks a little ominous (but most meteorologists
look a little ominous as well, so there may be some projection there). So even
on Day 6 of the SPC outlooks, we get that yellow blotch centered right on
Oklahoma again.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20190515/spc-monday-outlook.gif
Nothing to be frightened about here. We have days and days to prepare. Well, for
Friday I guess we have Day and Day to prepare. But this is merely springtime in
Oklahoma. We'll probably see all modes of severe weather by the time it's done.
That's just part of the deal living here. Not everybody will see everything,
but everybody should be prepared and stay weather aware nonetheless. One thing
we are most likely to see, given how much moisture is projected to transport
north from the Gulf of Mexico, is flooding. ZOUNDS! Will you look at that?
Where are we gonna put it all?
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20190515/7day-rain-forecast.gif
I have no clue what to do to prepare for that one. Mow your lawn? Batten down
the hatches? Batten down whatever it is that can be battened, I guess.
(Note to self: look up what "batten" means).
Okay, this is what's drawing all the headlines. At least we should get a more
refined look at Saturday's severe chances tomorrow, and a better grasp of
Friday as well. Until then...
SEE YA LATER, MOTHER HARPER!
Gary McManus
State Climatologist
Oklahoma Mesonet
Oklahoma Climatological Survey
(405) 325-2253
gmcmanus@mesonet.org
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