Go back to the Ticker Home Page!

. . . Other Tickers . . .
Previous Ticker: November 11, 2022	Following Ticker: November 14, 2022
. . . Tell Others . . .
Share     Tweet
. . . Ticker for November 13, 2022 . . .
MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... November 13, 2022 November 13, 2022 November 13, 2022 November 13, 2022 Emergency Ticker-blast https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20221113/Braums-DEFCON-meter-nov14-2022.png Wait, a Sunday Ticker? Well what did you expect me to do, actually put out a Braum's EMERGENCY DEF-CON METER on Friday, when it had a greater chance of being wrong* (*Note: it's a snowfall forecast in Oklahoma...it still has a great chance of being wrong). But, with the forecast models continuing to shift the greatest chance of snow to the south, it must also be noted that they could CONTINUE to push the track south, which is why we put the 4's in along the Red River. Not that the models control the weather, mind you--we're pretty sure that's still done by Joan Jett and the Blackhearts. Here's what the local NWS offices are thinking, with LOTS and LOTS of uncertainty blaring in their graphics. They warned ya, now so have I. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20221113/nws-ama-snow.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20221113/nws-tulsa-snow.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20221113/nws-norman-snow.png The setup is fairly simple...you have a weakening short-wave trough moving over the state from the west. The temperatures in the vertical profile of the atmosphere will be a bit too warm for snow at first, but as precipitation continues to fall into that air and evaporates, the entire vertical column EXCEPT near the surface should continue to fall as well until it's below freezing. At that point, we should see a change-over to snow. Temps at the surface will be above freezing or right at freezing through the same process, so we should get some pretty good accumulations in places where the heaviest snow falls. Don't worry about it sticking, we see this often enough to know that those ground temp levels will drop as they're impacted by the snow, and that's including road surfaces. The surface temperature continues to drop in the face of this wintry blast we've seen over the last few days. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20221113/weatherford-soil-temp-graph.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20221113/monday-forecast-lows.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20221113/monday-forecast-highs.png This will, if it actually happens, be a very brief but very heavy burst of snow, somewhere across the western 2/3rds of the state before the short-wave limps off and fades away somewhere over eastern OK. And here's the kicker... https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20221113/justin-tucker.png And here's the other kicker...still LOTS of uncertainty, but let's have fun with the snow (or lack thereof) because if it's gonna be cold, it might as well warm back up into the 90s (or snow, whichever comes first). Gary McManus State Climatologist Oklahoma Mesonet Oklahoma Climatological Survey gmcmanus@mesonet.org ================================================== The OCS/Mesonet Ticker https://ticker.mesonet.org/ To subscribe or unsubscribe from the Ticker or for questions about the Ticker or its content Phone or Email the Ticker Manager at OCS Phone: 405-325-2253 Email: ticker@mesonet.org --------------------------------------------------- -C- Copyright 2024 Oklahoma Climatological Survey ===================================================