OCS/Mesonet Ticker for May 13, 2019

. . . Other Tickers . . .

Previous Ticker: May 9, 2019 Following Ticker: May 15, 2019

. . . Tell Others . . .

Share on Facebook Share Share on Twitter Tweet

. . . Ticker for May 13, 2019 . . .

MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ...
May 13, 2019 May 13, 2019 May 13, 2019 May 13, 2019

It's a timing thing

http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20190513/day6prob.png

What, you want me to talk about how we're gonna have beautiful (mostly) weather
over the next 5 days? How we're gonna see highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s?
Spring? Glorious, wonderful spring?

No, not going to do it. There's no cachet to that. No pizazz. Dare I say, that's
not sexy enough? It's May, so severe weather generally steals the headlines. And
we've seen plenty enough of it already (well, starting April 30, that is). We've
had at least 21 confirmed tornadoes in the NWS Norman's area of responsibility
already, and add the slew of twisters that the Tulsa office has seen and we're
all of a sudden right on track for our annual average of 56.2 (guarantee you
that two-tenths of a tornado hit somewhere in Moore).

http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20190513/nws-norman-tornadoes.png

So another big day could send us right over the top. Not saying Friday/Saturday
(and remember, timing is way uncertain at this point,) (and some people say using
too many parentheses is a terrible way to write) is going to be one of those big
days, but it again perks your ears up when you see SPC alerting for a severe
chance 5-6 days out. The top graphic was for Saturday, but let's not forget
Friday out west. Typical dryline scenario with strong jet stream positioned
from SW to NE overhead sets off alarm bells. And don't rest on the "well, it's
only 15% on the map" label. Yeah, it's better than if it was 30%, but to ping
it out on day 5 and 6 is ear perk-worthy.

http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20190513/day5prob.gif

Here's a bit of text from SPC about the weekend's chances:

"On Friday/D5, strong southwest flow aloft will spread into the
Plains, with the strongest winds from NM into west TX. Low pressure
is forecast across northeast CO into NE during the day, with a
dryline extending southward into west TX. Widespread mid 60s F
dewpoints will be in place ahead of the dryline, and northward to
the warm front from eastern SD into IA. Moderate to strong
instability will develop over the warm sector, with wind profiles
supporting supercells producing very large hail and a few tornadoes.
Clusters of storms, or an MCS, is also possible overnight mainly
over northwest TX into western OK.

For Saturday/D6, significant differences exist regarding the
shortwave trough, with the new ECMWF showing a compact,
negative-tilt shortwave from northwest TX across OK and into KS.
Meanwhile, the GFS based members show a less amplified solution,
with the main threat area farther east. Either solution will support
severe weather, whether more of a squall line producing damaging
winds, or a mixed mode threat including supercells and tornadoes. As
such, have introduced 15% severe probs for Saturday, mainly across
OK and TX."

So even in that language (don't make me break out the gibberish translator
again!), you can see the concern AND the uncertainty. One of the biggest
concerns will also remain with flash flooding. Any additional rainfall on our
waterlogged state is going to cause problems. We will see a good drying out over
the next 5 days, but more rain is going to have to find places to go, and our
streams, lakes and rivers aren't the answer. They're mostly full.

http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20190513/Monthly-Reservoir-Storage.png

http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20190513/latest.oklahoma.flood.gif

http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20190513/7day-rain-forecast.gif

However, at this point with so much uncertainty and so much time between now
and the weekend, let's just enjoy the week and the springiness of spring.

However, part 2...with what's happened already in the past 2 weeks, and given
that you have 5 days, how about getting prepared now, and then we'll start up
with all that "stay weather aware" bidness later this week.

Take this with ya.

http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20190513/wednesday-forecast-highs.png

BOOM! POW!

Gary McManus
State Climatologist
Oklahoma Mesonet
Oklahoma Climatological Survey
(405) 325-2253
gmcmanus@mesonet.org
================================================== The OCS/Mesonet Ticker https://ticker.mesonet.org/ To subscribe or unsubscribe from the Ticker or for questions about the Ticker or its content Phone or Email the Ticker Manager at OCS Phone: 405-325-2253 Email: ticker@mesonet.org --------------------------------------------------- -C- Copyright 2024 Oklahoma Climatological Survey ===================================================

. . . Other Tickers . . .

Previous Ticker: May 9, 2019	Following Ticker: May 15, 2019

. . . Tell Others . . .

Share Tweet

. . . Ticker for May 13, 2019 . . .

MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... May 13, 2019 May 13, 2019 May 13, 2019 May 13, 2019 It's a timing thing http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20190513/day6prob.png What, you want me to talk about how we're gonna have beautiful (mostly) weather over the next 5 days? How we're gonna see highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s? Spring? Glorious, wonderful spring? No, not going to do it. There's no cachet to that. No pizazz. Dare I say, that's not sexy enough? It's May, so severe weather generally steals the headlines. And we've seen plenty enough of it already (well, starting April 30, that is). We've had at least 21 confirmed tornadoes in the NWS Norman's area of responsibility already, and add the slew of twisters that the Tulsa office has seen and we're all of a sudden right on track for our annual average of 56.2 (guarantee you that two-tenths of a tornado hit somewhere in Moore). http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20190513/nws-norman-tornadoes.png So another big day could send us right over the top. Not saying Friday/Saturday (and remember, timing is way uncertain at this point,) (and some people say using too many parentheses is a terrible way to write) is going to be one of those big days, but it again perks your ears up when you see SPC alerting for a severe chance 5-6 days out. The top graphic was for Saturday, but let's not forget Friday out west. Typical dryline scenario with strong jet stream positioned from SW to NE overhead sets off alarm bells. And don't rest on the "well, it's only 15% on the map" label. Yeah, it's better than if it was 30%, but to ping it out on day 5 and 6 is ear perk-worthy. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20190513/day5prob.gif Here's a bit of text from SPC about the weekend's chances: "On Friday/D5, strong southwest flow aloft will spread into the Plains, with the strongest winds from NM into west TX. Low pressure is forecast across northeast CO into NE during the day, with a dryline extending southward into west TX. Widespread mid 60s F dewpoints will be in place ahead of the dryline, and northward to the warm front from eastern SD into IA. Moderate to strong instability will develop over the warm sector, with wind profiles supporting supercells producing very large hail and a few tornadoes. Clusters of storms, or an MCS, is also possible overnight mainly over northwest TX into western OK. For Saturday/D6, significant differences exist regarding the shortwave trough, with the new ECMWF showing a compact, negative-tilt shortwave from northwest TX across OK and into KS. Meanwhile, the GFS based members show a less amplified solution, with the main threat area farther east. Either solution will support severe weather, whether more of a squall line producing damaging winds, or a mixed mode threat including supercells and tornadoes. As such, have introduced 15% severe probs for Saturday, mainly across OK and TX." So even in that language (don't make me break out the gibberish translator again!), you can see the concern AND the uncertainty. One of the biggest concerns will also remain with flash flooding. Any additional rainfall on our waterlogged state is going to cause problems. We will see a good drying out over the next 5 days, but more rain is going to have to find places to go, and our streams, lakes and rivers aren't the answer. They're mostly full. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20190513/Monthly-Reservoir-Storage.png http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20190513/latest.oklahoma.flood.gif http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20190513/7day-rain-forecast.gif However, at this point with so much uncertainty and so much time between now and the weekend, let's just enjoy the week and the springiness of spring. However, part 2...with what's happened already in the past 2 weeks, and given that you have 5 days, how about getting prepared now, and then we'll start up with all that "stay weather aware" bidness later this week. Take this with ya. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20190513/wednesday-forecast-highs.png BOOM! POW! Gary McManus State Climatologist Oklahoma Mesonet Oklahoma Climatological Survey (405) 325-2253 gmcmanus@mesonet.org ================================================== The OCS/Mesonet Ticker https://ticker.mesonet.org/ To subscribe or unsubscribe from the Ticker or for questions about the Ticker or its content Phone or Email the Ticker Manager at OCS Phone: 405-325-2253 Email: ticker@mesonet.org --------------------------------------------------- -C- Copyright 2024 Oklahoma Climatological Survey ===================================================