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September 12, 2024 September 12, 2024 September 12, 2024 September 12, 2024
Full drought ahead!
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20240912/20240910_ok_trd.png
An AFTERNOON Ticker? Are you kidding me? Something bad must be happening. Well,
I did just get off the road from a drought talk, and let me tell you that's a
really weird place to give a presentation. That asphalt is hot! But so's (wait,
is "so's" a proper contraction? IT IS NOW!) the weather. And it's just gonna
get hotter. In fact (and also opinion), expect a full-on summer weekend.
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20240912/friday-forecast-highs.png
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20240912/saturday-forecast-highs.png
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20240912/sunday-forecast-highs.png
That heat will continue on into next week, and beyond.
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20240912/nws-norman-7day-temps.png
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20240912/sept17-21-temp-outlook.png
There are hints of a big front about 10 days out, so right after that graphic's
time frame, but at this point, fantasy-cast. Also hints at some rain as well.
You should believe it when you see it, right? Because the next 7 days...nyet!
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20240912/7day-rain-forecast.png
Maybe after that?? No, I'm asking you...heck if I know!
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20240912/sept17-21-precip-outlook.png
At least those far SE OK got a dose, thanks to Francine.
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20240912/rainrfc.48hr.png
I do think we're getting good news concerning our erstwhile La Nina that we've
been talking about for 6 months now. The new CPC ENSO Outlook today says "The
IRI plume predicts a weak and a short duration La Niņa, as indicated by the
Niņo-3.4 index values less than -0.5°C [Fig. 6]. This month, the team relies
more on the latest North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) guidance, which
predicts La Niņa to emerge in the next couple of months and continue through
the Northern Hemisphere winter. The continuation of negative subsurface
temperatures and enhanced low-level easterly wind anomalies supports the
formation of a weak La Niņa. A weaker La Niņa implies that it would be less
likely to result in conventional winter impacts, though predictable signals
could still influence the forecast guidance (e.g., CPC's seasonal outlooks).
In summary, La Niņa is favored to emerge in September-November (71% chance) and
is expected to persist through January-March 2025 [Fig. 7]."
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20240912/figure06.gif
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20240912/figure07.gif
Let me remind you that La Nina tends to bring the Southern Tier of the U.S.
warmer and drier than normal conditions during the cool season.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20200916/la-nina-pattern.jpg
However, the strength of the La Nina CAN matter. Not necessarily in the strength
of the usual impacts, but the likelihood of those impacts occurring. So weaker
strength implies weaker odds of seeing the impacts. Like I say to my mirror
every morning...weak is better.
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20240912/la_nina_wk.png
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20240912/la_nina_mod.png
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20240912/la_nina_stg.png
Mother Nature agrees, I hope.
Gary McManus
State Climatologist
Oklahoma Mesonet
Oklahoma Climate Survey
gmcmanus@ou.edu
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