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. . . Ticker for May 11, 2023 . . .
MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... May 11, 2023 May 11, 2023 May 11, 2023 May 11, 2023 The Suck Zone https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230511/OK_swody1_TORN.png Yes, Ladies and Gentlemen (and most of the rest of you...you know who you are!), it is indeed one of THOSE days in Oklahoma, when you wake up and step outside and feel that moist air, knowing that things are gonna go bump in the night AND the daytime later on. Classic springtime Oklahoma setup for severe weather on the way today. Lots of moisture streaming up from the Gulf of Mexico. And our expected afternoon heat in the 80s and 90s later today, mix in some wind that's mixing itself with height (shear), a good old fashioned dryline out west, and you have supercelluar soup going in the crockpot to be served later. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230511/current-dewpoints.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230511/latest.tdew.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230511/todays-forecast-highs.png The actual risk for later this afternoon will be winds of 60-80 mph, hail up into the tennis ball to baseball sizes, and of course tornadoes. Some strong tornadoes are possible as well. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230511/OK_swody1.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230511/OK_swody1_HAIL.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230511/OK_swody1_WIND.png Tornadoes? Heck, the hail will probably kill ya! It'll put knots on your noggin faster'n you can rub 'em. So in order to protect the lives of those you love, and your property, take the proper precautions NOW. Know where you and your peeps are going to be this afternoon into evening. Charge your wireless devices (heck, wire your chargeless devices if you can), put batteries in your NOAA weather radio (or go buy one if you don't have one), and stay tuned to your favorite local media source as well as your local NWS office. And then get ready to do it all again tomorrow. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230511/OK_swody2.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230511/OK_swody2_TORN.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230511/OK_swody2_WIND.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230511/OK_swody2_HAIL.png And maybe again on Saturday. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230511/OK_swody3.png The weather on Friday and Saturday don't look quite as impactful as today's, but like I said all week, TODAY'S didn't look that impactful a few days out "but it's May...in Oklahoma." HINT: It's still May. In Oklahoma. So be prepared today, tomorrow, and again on Saturday, if needed. As we get closer to the weekend, the rainfall should pick up into more of a flood-risk type of event, with our 5-day rainfall forecast showing up with 3-4 inches possible in SW OK. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230511/5day-rain-forecast.gif Oh yeah, rain! We are still in drought, you know. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230511/20230509_ok_trd.png That rainfall will be beneficial, despite any bad stuff it comes with, up until the point that it causes flash flooding. So know those danger spots, don't drive into pooled water on roadways, and remember the old saying..."turn around, don't drown." https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230511/nws-norman-sat-flood.png Rain Saturday? Heck, it's raining right now for crying out loud! https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230511/current-radar.png There are things actually working AGAINST our severe weather setup, like the storms shown in that radar image, some lingering cloudiness, some weak upper- level flow, etc. But there's enough NOT working against it that should give us some high-end severe weather today. If it doesn't...great! Other big news that could impact our weather much farther ahead...the Climate Prediction Center has issued an "El Nino Watch" for this coming fall. No, it's not the latest Apple Watch...it's a call for us to sit up and take notice that El Nino is becoming more likely as we get later into the year. "El Niņo Watch: Issued when conditions are favorable for the development of El Niņo or La Niņa conditions within the next six months. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230511/ENSO-probabilities.gif Don't worry too much about what it's doing now...El Nino (and La Nina) mostly impact our weather as we get into the cool season...so mid-fall, peaking in winter, and lasting through mid-spring or so. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230511/ENSO_wx.png As we look over the intervening 3-month periods between now and next year at this time, we see that this El Nino has a chance to get into the strong or very-strong categories. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230511/ENSO-strength.png That's important because a weak or moderate El Nino can actually bring us MORE dry weather, as these November-March precipitation anomaly composites show us. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230511/el_wk_p.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230511/el_md_p.png When we get into the strong to very-strong El Nino events, that's when we can see our better chances for increased precipitation. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230511/el_st_p.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230511/el_vs_p.png Okay, that's a lot to ponder for today. Let's get through our current weather wackiness before we try and figure out what's going to occur months from now. Stay safe! Gary McManus State Climatologist Oklahoma Mesonet Oklahoma Climatological Survey gmcmanus@mesonet.org ================================================== The OCS/Mesonet Ticker https://ticker.mesonet.org/ To subscribe or unsubscribe from the Ticker or for questions about the Ticker or its content Phone or Email the Ticker Manager at OCS Phone: 405-325-2253 Email: ticker@mesonet.org --------------------------------------------------- -C- Copyright 2024 Oklahoma Climatological Survey ===================================================