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November 10, 2022 November 10, 2022 November 10, 2022 November 10, 2022
CRAZY IVAN!
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20221110/crazy-ivan.png
"Turn out the lights the party's over. They say that all good things must end."
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20221110/dandy-don.jpg
(If I have to explain this, go back to your tick tock, whippersnappers)!
Yes sir, ladies and gentlemen (and most of the rest of you), things are about
to change. Change for the better? Well, that depends on who you ask. If you query
those foolish folks that actually WANT what's coming--WINTER--then they're going
to be extremely happy. If'n you're like me (I pity you because being like me
doesn't work for me either), you actually enjoy being 10-15 degrees above normal
every now and again. A bout with cold weather can be fine, but in small quantities.
It's even more jarring when you've been in an extended period of that warmer than
normal weather. It wasn't that pleasant in July and August, mind you, but it has
certainly been rather wonderful in October and November. But that makes what's
coming all the more jarring. We're not getting and extended bout with a bit
cooler fall weather...we're getting winter!
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20221110/nws-norman-7day-temps.png
Yeah, that's not a moon, that's a space station! Whoops, I mean, that's not
early November, that's JANUARY! Sorry about that, but I just felt a great
disturbance in the Force...has to be the cold front passing through my hometown
of Buffalo.
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20221110/3hour-temp-change.png
I guess there's a bit of macabre (English to Okie translation: disturbing)
fascination with the front, being such an abrupt decapitation (I told you it
was macabre!) of our extended bout of warm weather. How extended, you ask? Yes,
I can hear inside your house! How extended? Well, it started in January and
saw very little interruption! Check out this smoothed version of the Mesonet's
statewide average highs (red line) vs. the long-term average (black line) for
2022.
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20221110/2022-statewide-avg-highs.png
So it was cold February for awhile, and again in early March, then that first
week of June or so when it was raining so much. Other than that, solidly above
normal for most of the year (save for that bit of spring that flirted with
oscillating around normal for awhile).
A shock to the system? You're darned right it is...or will be. Take Monday.
Please?
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20221110/monday-forecast-highs.png
And take Saturday morning with it!
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20221110/saturday-lows.png
Not to mention there will be a chance of snow on Monday, and maybe again
later that week when even COLDER weather arrives. Amounts are uncertain because
the snow is uncertain, but the cold weather is certainly certain. In fact, if
you look at the latest forecast models, we don't see even close to normal
highs until the Tuesday of Thanksgiving week, Nov. 22!
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20221110/nov15-19-temp-outlook.png
The best chance for moisture with all these shenanigans is today along the
I-44 corridor as the front progresses farther into the state.
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20221110/todays-forecast-rainfall.gif
That's not great news for the drought picture, which still shows most of
Oklahoma in at least moderate drought, and 65% in extreme to exceptional drought,
the two highest intensity levels on the Drought Monitor.
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20221110/20221108_ok_trd.png
Now this switch to a cold regime is a double-edged sword for the state...we lose
the evaporative impacts of above normal temperatures, but we also lose the more
abundant moisture available in the warmer air (sort of). So the rains we saw
last week and the last month are gonna be a bit tougher to come by, especially
with the Gulf Moisture cut off at the lower and mid-levels.
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20221110/30day-rain-totals.png
Unfortunately, we enter the driest part of the year with some tremendous
long-term deficits.
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20221110/del90day_rain.current.png
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20221110/del120day_rain.current.png
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20221110/del180day_rain.current.png
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20221110/delcalendaryear_rain.current.png
Let's hope this is winter's one and last hurrah.
One winter only, Vasily.
Gary McManus
State Climatologist
Oklahoma Mesonet
Oklahoma Climatological Survey
gmcmanus@mesonet.org
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