OCS/Mesonet Ticker for November 8, 2022

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. . . Ticker for November 8, 2022 . . .

MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ...
November 8, 2022 November 8, 2022 November 8, 2022 November 8, 2022

Your winter duty

https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20221108/10day-snow-forecast-totals.png

I'd say there's about a 10% chance of this type of forecast coming through for us
in the middle of next week, an 80% chance it doesn't happen, and a 30% chance I
don't know how percentages work. Take a few percentage points from petty cash to
hold you over until then.

I post it for fun because the CPC outlooks forced me to!

https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20221108/snow-way.png

It's fairly obvious by now that we are going to see a drastic change in our weather
pattern starting this weekend and lasting through most of next week. That much is
obvious, and redundantly stated, obviously. But when you see the increased odds of
above normal precip along with below normal temps, doesn't it make you wanna just
scream "SNOW" instead of "REALLY COLD RAIN"?

And doesn't seeing Ashton Kutcher make you wanna just scream "WHERE'S MY LASAGNA?"

I don't know why I typed that either, but I'll leave it as part of any needed
insanity defense.

So it would be fun, and it *IS* Oklahoma, so that would ensure many folks an
early start to Thanksgiving vacation. I mean, an inch of snow? Shut this sucker
down!

We are definitely NOT having many cold starts this week, however, as we see
record high lows...ummmm, record high l...record lows that are high...record
HIGH minimum temperatures to start the day. OH YEAH, well you try it!

https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20221108/todays-lows.png

https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20221108/nov8-record-high-tmins.png

Mid-to-upper 60s? Are you kidding me, Private Pyle? This isn't November, this is
Neptember! Those minimum temps have been kept up into record territory by the
insane amount of humidity out there.

https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20221108/current-dewpoints.png

https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20221108/current-RH.png

Remember, the dewpoint temperature acts as a bottom lid on those temperatures,
since if the actual air temperature drops to that dewpoint temperature, that
water vapor starts to condense, heat is released, and the temperature holds
steady at that dewpoint temperature. You see, when water condenses from water
vapor into liquid water, it releases a large amount of heat...around
2.5x10^6 Joules of heat energy for every kilogram that condenses from vapor to
liquid.

If you guessed 1.21 jigawattes, take a few more percentage points from petty
cash, and then slap yourself in the face.

You can try and cool the air down below that dewpoint temperature, but then it
becomes supersaturated and starts condensing water vapor even faster, releasing
more heat and bringing that air temperature back up to the dewpoint value. It's
a futile effort at best, sort of like me using a comb.

The point is we're gonna remain mild through Thursday (for most), then we go
back down below the dewpoi...NO NO, the normal temps for this time of year
for at least a week or so. If not below, then certainly closer to the seasonal
norms.

So we go from this on Thursday

https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20221108/thursday-highs.png

to this on Friday.

https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20221108/friday-highs.png

Now the question becomes just how bigtime is that cold front next week, and how
much cold air does it have behind it, and what is the timing of that cold front
with any moisture return that could give us our fantasy-cast come true?

If it doesn't happen, don't blame me. We know where the fault lies, right?

KUTCHERRRRRRRRRR!!!

Gary McManus
State Climatologist
Oklahoma Mesonet
Oklahoma Climatological Survey
gmcmanus@mesonet.org
================================================== The OCS/Mesonet Ticker https://ticker.mesonet.org/ To subscribe or unsubscribe from the Ticker or for questions about the Ticker or its content Phone or Email the Ticker Manager at OCS Phone: 405-325-2253 Email: ticker@mesonet.org --------------------------------------------------- -C- Copyright 2024 Oklahoma Climatological Survey ===================================================

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. . . Ticker for November 8, 2022 . . .

MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... November 8, 2022 November 8, 2022 November 8, 2022 November 8, 2022 Your winter duty https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20221108/10day-snow-forecast-totals.png I'd say there's about a 10% chance of this type of forecast coming through for us in the middle of next week, an 80% chance it doesn't happen, and a 30% chance I don't know how percentages work. Take a few percentage points from petty cash to hold you over until then. I post it for fun because the CPC outlooks forced me to! https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20221108/snow-way.png It's fairly obvious by now that we are going to see a drastic change in our weather pattern starting this weekend and lasting through most of next week. That much is obvious, and redundantly stated, obviously. But when you see the increased odds of above normal precip along with below normal temps, doesn't it make you wanna just scream "SNOW" instead of "REALLY COLD RAIN"? And doesn't seeing Ashton Kutcher make you wanna just scream "WHERE'S MY LASAGNA?" I don't know why I typed that either, but I'll leave it as part of any needed insanity defense. So it would be fun, and it IS Oklahoma, so that would ensure many folks an early start to Thanksgiving vacation. I mean, an inch of snow? Shut this sucker down! We are definitely NOT having many cold starts this week, however, as we see record high lows...ummmm, record high l...record lows that are high...record HIGH minimum temperatures to start the day. OH YEAH, well you try it! https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20221108/todays-lows.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20221108/nov8-record-high-tmins.png Mid-to-upper 60s? Are you kidding me, Private Pyle? This isn't November, this is Neptember! Those minimum temps have been kept up into record territory by the insane amount of humidity out there. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20221108/current-dewpoints.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20221108/current-RH.png Remember, the dewpoint temperature acts as a bottom lid on those temperatures, since if the actual air temperature drops to that dewpoint temperature, that water vapor starts to condense, heat is released, and the temperature holds steady at that dewpoint temperature. You see, when water condenses from water vapor into liquid water, it releases a large amount of heat...around 2.5x10^6 Joules of heat energy for every kilogram that condenses from vapor to liquid. If you guessed 1.21 jigawattes, take a few more percentage points from petty cash, and then slap yourself in the face. You can try and cool the air down below that dewpoint temperature, but then it becomes supersaturated and starts condensing water vapor even faster, releasing more heat and bringing that air temperature back up to the dewpoint value. It's a futile effort at best, sort of like me using a comb. The point is we're gonna remain mild through Thursday (for most), then we go back down below the dewpoi...NO NO, the normal temps for this time of year for at least a week or so. If not below, then certainly closer to the seasonal norms. So we go from this on Thursday https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20221108/thursday-highs.png to this on Friday. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20221108/friday-highs.png Now the question becomes just how bigtime is that cold front next week, and how much cold air does it have behind it, and what is the timing of that cold front with any moisture return that could give us our fantasy-cast come true? If it doesn't happen, don't blame me. We know where the fault lies, right? KUTCHERRRRRRRRRR!!! Gary McManus State Climatologist Oklahoma Mesonet Oklahoma Climatological Survey gmcmanus@mesonet.org ================================================== The OCS/Mesonet Ticker https://ticker.mesonet.org/ To subscribe or unsubscribe from the Ticker or for questions about the Ticker or its content Phone or Email the Ticker Manager at OCS Phone: 405-325-2253 Email: ticker@mesonet.org --------------------------------------------------- -C- Copyright 2024 Oklahoma Climatological Survey ===================================================