MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... October 6, 2015 October 6, 2015 October 6, 2015 October 6, 2015
Rain rain, going away
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20151006/sell.jpg
We have an upper-level low to the west of us that wants to take a Mexican vacation, and a front coming through that's begging for a glass of water. Together, that means that our rain chances are taking the old nosedive into Flash Drought Lake.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20151006/nws-amarillo-rain.gif http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20151006/nws-norman-rain1.jpg http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20151006/nws-norman-rain2.jpg http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20151006/nws-norman-rain3.jpg http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20151006/tulsa-nws-rain.png
So the chances are there, a bit lower than previously advertised, and the same story holds for the amounts.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20151006/7day-rain-forecast.gif
On top of that, we have a possible return to summer in the forecast for early next week with highs in the 80s and even some low 90s.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20151006/nws-norman-7day.jpg
This means flash drought will be enhanced rather than relieved. The impacts continue to show up in our soil moisture data from the Mesonet, and we have our first burn ban for the state implemented in McCurtain County.
http://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/category/soil_moisture http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20151006/BurnBanMap100515.png
And the various drought indices we look at are all showing the flash drought development, especially in the 60-day time frame.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20151006/30day-SPI.png http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20151006/60day-SPI.png http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20151006/90day-SPI.png
And the dry weather can be traced back to July 29. For that ~70 day period, we're down more than 5 inches in some places...the 7th driest such period on record since at least 1921 for SC Oklahoma.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20151006/july29-oct6-totals.png http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20151006/july29-oct6-depart-normal.png http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20151006/july29-oct6-pct-normal.png http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20151006/july29-oct6-stats.png
I wish we had better news. Don't pack the shorts away just yet, and keep your snowcone coupons handy. Next week looks very early September-ish.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20151006/oct11-15-precip-outlook.gif http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20151006/oct11-15-temp-outlook.gif
Gary McManus State Climatologist Oklahoma Mesonet Oklahoma Climatological Survey (405) 325-2253 gmcmanus@mesonet.org
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