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November 3, 2022 November 3, 2022 November 3, 2022 November 3, 2022
Drought continues
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20221103/del365day_rain.current.png
Drought continues across Oklahoma, and it is easy to see why. Rainfall deficits
from 365 days to 30 days all point to unusually dry weather across most areas of
Oklahoma, a combination of long-term drought (actually going back to August 2021)
and short-term "flash" drought beginning on June 11, 2022. Short-term wetness
cannot break through strongly enough to break that long-term dryness, as evidenced
by the current U.S. Drought Monitor map and the 365-day rainfall maps that back it.
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20221103/20221101_ok_trd.png
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20221103/365day-rain-totals.png
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20221103/pct365day_rain.current.png
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20221103/365-rain-stats.png
And the Drought Monitor change map shows how that dryness has impacted the
Southern Plains.
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20221103/current_conus_chng_52W.png
While we definitely need rain, the current severe weather setup is not the most
favorable choice of delivering it. However, the speed of the system and possible
dry-air intrusion tomorrow could leave most of the area with a lot less rainfall
that was first forecast.
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20221103/3day-forecast-rain.gif
As we've gotten closer, the highest severe threat has shifted farther to the
southeast, but it has also intensified. There is now a fairly significant
threat of damaging tornadoes across SE OK coming up on Friday, although the
threat to the rest of the state is not zero either Thursday or Friday. Large
wind and hail remain a threat as well.
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20221103/day1otlk_1200.gif
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20221103/day1probotlk_1200_torn.gif
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20221103/day1probotlk_1200_wind.gif
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20221103/day1probotlk_1200_hail.gif
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20221103/day2otlk_0600.gif
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20221103/day2probotlk_0600_torn.gif
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20221103/day2probotlk_0600_wind.gif
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20221103/day2probotlk_0600_hail.gif
The timing of that severe weather will be overnight out west, and then later
in the day for Friday's ongoing threat.
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20221103/nws-ama-thur-svr.png
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20221103/nws-ama-fri-svr.png
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20221103/nws-norman-thur-svr.png
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20221103/nws-norman-fri-svr.png
The fuel for this storm system is streaming north on strong southerly winds,
reaching all the way up into the Northern Plains. The moisture and winds have
helped keep Oklahoma's overnight temperatures well into the 50s and 60s, near
record territory for high minimum temperatures for this time of year.
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20221103/latest.tdew.png
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20221103/nov3-record-hi-mins.png
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20221103/todays-lows.png
At any rate, the forecast rainfall from this storm system is not expected to
put much of a dent in the drought across the western half to two-thirds of the
state. Eastern Oklahoma could see definitely drought relief, however.
Gary McManus
State Climatologist
Oklahoma Mesonet
Oklahoma Climatological Survey
gmcmanus@mesonet.org
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