MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... December 23, 2015 December 23, 2015 December 23, 2015 December 23, 2015
This ain't gonna be pretty
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20151223/Statewide-Braums.png
Yes, a new unofficial-yet-official BRAUM'S EMERGENCY BREAD AND MILK DEF-CON map has been posted. Some say I trivialize the weather, but I say the weather trivializes us. Just wait until after this storm and you'll get the picture.
This storm is shaping up to be on of the powerfulest (so powerful I'm making up words) and definitely wettest in December in recent memory. Just look at all the moisture it has to work with!
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20151223/7day-moisture-forecast.gif
I don't want to scare anybody here, but that 2+ inches you see out in the far NW of OK would translate into a lot of snow in the forecast temperature environment. But alas, the certainty of uncertainty is still certain, and the track of the CLOSED LOW that is coming out of the SW is going to be the key, as well as how quickly the associated cold air can impact the vertical temperature profile of the atmosphere. We've used this graphic quite a bit, but unfortunately, it's still the key.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20131125/winter-precip-types.png
And don't forget that 6+ inches forecast to fall as mainly rain across eastern Oklahoma. That will bring some flooding. Dangerous flooding. And one certainty is that 2015 will end up as the wettest on record for the state of Oklahoma. Not only will we beat 1957's record of 47.88 inches (heck, we're already at 48 inches through November so we've already beaten it), we will absolutely decimate it. Blast it. Destroy it.
Another record I never thought possible was the annual total for a single location, Tuskahoma's 88.27 from 1990. The NWS COOP station in Daisy has 80.75 inches for the year thus far and is in the heavy precip forecast area. The Mesonet station at McAlester is not far behind at 78 inches.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20151223/caltot.png
Here are some graphics from the local NWS offices detailing the impending storm system. Notice the mention of uncertainty a lot? Certainly you do.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20151223/nws-amarillo.gif
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20151223/nws-norman-precip.types.jpg http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20151223/nws-norman-snow.totals.jpg http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20151223/nws-norman-rain.totals.jpg
On top of that, severe weather has broken out to our south and east with the tornadoes and the hail and the wind and the whatnot!
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20151223/latest.severe.gif
Final words...prepare now. If you have to travel to the west after Christmas... don't? If you have to travel to the east after Christmas...turn around don't drown. Stay weather aware. Media, NWS, your local Emergency Manager on social media...whatever source you know to be trustworthy in your experience. We use them all here at the Ticker.
We're prepared. Are you?
Gary McManus State Climatologist Oklahoma Mesonet Oklahoma Climatological Survey (405) 325-2253 gmcmanus@mesonet.org
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