MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... October 23, 2012 October 23, 2012 October 23, 2012 October 23, 2012
October rainfall, still coming up short
If you're in Cimarron County, you're golden (or less brown). Far northeastern Oklahoma? Doing better. The rest of the state, by and large? Well, not so great. Lots of folks have had none.
Zilch. Zero. Nada. Nil. October has had a couple of rains, including the biggie a couple of weeks ago, but for the most part, the state's come up empty. Check out the Mesonet maps for the month thus far.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20121023/oct1-23-tots.png http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20121023/oct1-23-pct.png
The statewide average thus far is 1.09", which sounds pretty paltry. Okay, it IS pretty paltry. But only the 26th driest Oct. 1-23 since 1921 at 1.43" below normal. The statewide precipitation time series (1895-2011) shows that the month is often feast or famine.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20121023/october-history-rains.png
(things aren't much better if you go back to Sept. 1 ... 22nd driest Sept. 1- Oct. 23 since 1921, 2.3" below normal) http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20121023/sep1-oct23-tots.png http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20121023/sep1-oct23-pct.png
But, I'm afraid we're going to be stuck there in the lower regions of that timeline this year. The latest forecasts and outlooks appear to be pretty dry for the state through the end of the month.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20121023/5day-rain.gif
6-10 and 8-14 day precipitation outlooks http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20121023/610prcp.new.gif http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20121023/814prcp.new.gif
Those don't give a lot of optimism for the first week of November either, but admittedly, that could change abruptly in just a few days. The next week, however, looks pretty dry, especially for western Oklahoma.
Now history shows November has some drought relief in it from time to time (look at last year's total!), but it also has some aridity (check out 2010).
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20121023/november-history-rains.png
Wettest November in state history was 2004's 6.1" average. Maybe Mother Nature has another one left in her.
Gary McManus Associate State Climatologist Oklahoma Climatological Survey (405) 325-2253 gmcmanus@mesonet.org
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