MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... May 6, 2024 May 6, 2024 May 6, 2024 May 6, 2024
Listen to me now and believe me later
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20240506/OK_swody1_TORN.png
It's one of "those" spring days in Oklahoma. The ones we dread. The ones we worry about. The ones where the hype doesn't seem enough. And the Ticker despises hype. In case you long-term readers have forgotten, much of our so-called hype is actually a parody of hype...a tool, if you will, to get folks to sit up and take notice. But this one day. This May 6th day, I'm asking you to believe the hype. Just this one day, so you can keep you and your family safe. Don't be scared, don't be frightened...just be prepared. Boy Scouts already have this down, and so should you. It's just one day. Be vigilant, be aware, stay keenly attuned to what's going on in the weather. It might save your life, and the people you hold dear. We can all hope for a big bust.
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NO NO NO...well, that'd be cool alright, but I'm talking NO tornadoes. That would be nice, but the atmosphere has already signaled us that it's not kidding around this year when it dropped 5 tornadoes, and one of those is becoming mythic for it's non-damage-verified strength as one of the most intense in recent memory in Tillman County, when the risk was pretty darned low back on April 30. Agreed, one bad day does not beget the other, especially 7 days later, but still...
Lots of moisture already streaming back into the area from a pretty potent source area over the Gulf of Mexico.
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20240506/current.TDEW.grad.png
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20240506/latest.tdew.png
I'm not gonna bore you (I HEARD THAT!) with the setup so much, because it doesn't really matter, does it? Suffice it to say we have a storm system coming in with just the right amount of wind turning with height (sheer) and instability (lift; warm, buoyant parcels of air exploding upward), and the aforementioned moisture, to create our high risk environment. And don't sleep on the hail danger either. Stones up to the size of softballs will put knots on your noggin faster'n you can rub 'em! There will be a substantial damaging wind threat (other than the tornadic winds) coming across parts of the area as well.
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20240506/may6-svr-threat.png
And don't get too hung up on where those lines between the risk areas begin and end. Consider those fuzzy boundaries (like the area between my forehead and scalp...I mean, who could tell at this point?). And also don't think you're out of danger because you're in the yellow or green vs. those higher risk areas for each of the hazards. You ain't. Again, remember April 30? We could see two rounds of storms...first in the warm sector out ahead of the dryline if we break the cap, then along the dryline later on. Don't make the mistake we saw on April 27 when expected early storms didn't fire, so folks let their guards down, which left them vulnerable to storms later that evening.
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20240506/nws-norman-svr.png
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20240506/nws-tulsa-svr.png
And don't sleep on the flash flooding threat, either. You thinking of driving into that water rushing over the road? Don't do it. Turn around, don't drown! Go the longer way home. We could see 2-4 inches of rain with some of these storms.
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Timing is later this afternoon and into the overnight hours as the storms form, then march to the east. Standard drill with our severe weather outbreak situations, but be mindful again of multiple possible rounds.
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20240506/nws-norman-timing.png
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20240506/nws-tulsa-timing.png
Not everybody will see storms. But some will, and probably folks you know. Not everybody will be under a tornado threat, but you and yours could. Are you ready for severe weather? Are they?
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20240412/nws-norman-svr-plan.jpg
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20240412/nws-tulsa-svr.png
Don't be this guy!
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20240506/this-guy.jpg
Hmmm, some Cherry Pop-Tarts sound pretty good right now, not gonna lie!
Gary McManus State Climatologist Oklahoma Mesonet Oklahoma Climatological Survey gmcmanus@mesonet.org
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