Ticker for December 4, 2024

                
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December 4, 2024   December 4, 2024   December 4, 2024   December 4, 2024


Bing-a-ling




Well of course I probably just guaranteed Idabel a White Christmas, given that
climatologically speaking (well would you rather speak dolt-ish, like I do?),
their odds are basically Zero. Point. Zero. And forgive me if you've read this
before, but this is my annual "Gee, maybe it will happen" post.

Yes, someday my hair might magically reappear (where on my body I have no idea!).

But also, "Maybe we'll have a White Christmas this year!" only to have those hopes
dashed yet again. It's okay, though, to have a "normal" Christmas. I had a Green
Christmas last year and it was horrible. Do NOT eat Taco Bell on Christmas Eve.
But here's the deal, at this point in trying to predict snow--we need at least
an inch for some to consider it a White Christmas, but I'm gonna lower that
threshold in Oklahoma to any types of flakes...including your crazy cousins from
Gotebo and/or dandruff--we're still in "climatological mode" where we rely on
those long-term averages to predict our Christmas weather, being 21 days out.
When we get a bit closer, we can then go to the forecast models, even if it's
fantasy-cast territory 10-14 days out.

In other words, at this point we're still in climatology mode, but after about
a week we can switch over to weather mode in terms of forecasting our chances
for a White Christmas.

Clear as egg nog? Good.

The map you see above is the percent chance that any location in the U.S. will see
at least an inch of snow on the ground on Christmas Day, based on the 1991-2020
normals from the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). And it
tells us something we all knew already...most places in Oklahoma have what could
aptly be termed "negligible" odds for a white Christmas. Looks like Gate up in
far eastern Beaver County has about the best odds (again, based on data from
1991-2020) at 18%. If you're in Idabel?

Don't bother.

Again though, that's climatologically speaking, Idabelians. That doesn't
preclude the proper weather conditions coming together perfectly and giving
you some snow around Christmas. It's very unlikely to happen, given the odds,
but weather, especially in Oklahoma, always gives us a chance over climatology.

We are getting closer in the CPC outlooks. We can see the bigger picture
for the week before Christmas Week, at least.



Nothing too amazing there, except maybe the best odds for us of near normal
conditions (which would be cold enough to snow...more on that later). We do
want to see some of those blue cooler-than-normal odds start to approach from
the North as we get closer to Christmas, however, to at least give us a favorable
temperature regime for snow.

So now that we've dashed your White Christmas dreams (DASHING THROUGH THE SNOW,
IN A ONE-HORSE OPEN SLEIGH)...oof, I have when that happens. You know, for most
of my childhood I thought that said "one horse sloping sleigh" because of the
shape of the sleigh.

Keep that bit of genius in mind when you're attempting to take me seriously.

What about before Christmas? Well, our old friend the American Forecast Model,
the GFS, is trying to give us a white early next week.



Remember, that's just one deterministic model run. If you look at the GFS
Ensemble forecast, which is a combination (or mean) of 21 separate model runs,
it's saying "nah!"



So to sum up, our chances for a White Christmas this far out are slim (to none
for Idabel), but weather will eventually take over those determinations and
override (or confirm) climatology, and most importantly...never eat Taco Bell
for Christmas Eve.

And keep dreaming, it could happen!

Gary McManus
State Climatologist
Oklahoma Mesonet
Oklahoma Climatological Survey
gmcmanus@ou.edu