Ticker for November 1, 2022

                
MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ...
November 1, 2022   November 1, 2022   November 1, 2022   November 1, 2022


To believe or not




You got a better option? No, not the outlooks...those are what they are. I'm
talking the Ticker?

Well, other than the NWS? Okay, and the media folks? OKAY, and the Almanacs?
OKAYYYY, and the Persimmon seeds and caterpillars? OKAYYYYYYYYYY, and your
Aunt Marge's bunions and your Grandpa Larry's trick knee?

Okay, point taken, but here's the deal...it DOES appear we will see some relief
to our drought situation here in Oklahoma in November, but there's a trick.
There's ALWAYS a trick, like that time a couple of decades ago where I said "I'm
tired of combing my hair in the morning!"

Yeah, trick's on me. But here's the trick in that November drought outlook
showing improvement: it's mostly predicated (English to Okie dictionary: "based
on") this coming rainfall event, which I'll continue to say "I'll believe it
when I see it."



The system looks much faster than it originally did, and so we're going to need
a bit of help to squeeze out all the moisture possible. However, SPC is still
alerting us to possible danger coming up on Thursday and Friday.





It does look pretty dry next week, and after that we're firmly in fantasy-cast
territory.



Oh well, why look ahead? Take a gander back at October, which DID see actual
drought relief for many.


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October Drought Relief Mixed
Nov. 1, 2022

Drought held on through October in Oklahoma for the fifteenth consecutive month,
its roots dating back to August 2021 and boosted by additional flash drought
conditions beginning in June 2022. The drought’s severity and coverage peaked
in mid-October, its impacts varied and extreme. Dead and dormant vegetation led
to almost daily fights with wildfires for fire departments in all regions of
the state. The farm and ranch community battled dwindling sources of food and
water for livestock, as well as planting the state’s winter wheat crop into
desiccated soils—a somewhat desperate act known as “dusting in” with hopes of
future rainfall to germinate the seeds. The percentage of the state’s topsoils
considered “short to very short” by the USDA had risen to 98%, the worst such
conditions seen in the state since 2011. The amount of pasture and range
conditions rated “poor to very poor” by the USDA climbed to 80% by the end of
the month. Extreme and exceptional drought—the worst two categories on the U.S.
Drought Monitor’s intensity scale—had risen to 86% of the state by mid-month,
the highest such levels since Feb. 19, 2013. Some relief was found in the
southern half of the state thanks to three successive storm systems during
October, but northern Oklahoma was mostly left wanting for moisture.
Northwestern Oklahoma was particularly dry, with many of the Oklahoma Mesonet
sites in that area recording less than a quarter-inch of rain for the month.
Extreme and exceptional drought had decreased to 70% after the rains, but the
entire state was still entrenched in some level of drought at the end of
October.





The statewide average precipitation total for the month was 2.91 inches, 0.45
inches below normal and ranked as the 58th wettest October since records began
in 1895. Widespread totals of 3-5 inches were reported across southern and
eastern Oklahoma, but the northern half of the state generally saw 1-2 inches.
The vast differences in fortune within the state were illustrated by southwest
Oklahoma’s 23rd wettest October at 1.36 inches above normal, and the Panhandle’s
21st driest with a deficit of 1.47 inches. The Mesonet site at Valliant led the
state with 7 inches of rain, and another 36 sites recorded at least 4 inches.
Buffalo had the lowest total at 0.13 inches, and another 16 sites reported an
inch or less. The first 10 months of the year were the 25th driest on record
with a statewide average of 24.94 inches, 6.99 inches below normal.













The statewide average temperature of 61.9 degrees was 0.6 degrees above normal
and ranked as the 59th warmest October since records began in 1895. Those
numbers were a bit misleading, however. Mesonet data show that high temperatures
across the state were generally above average while low temperatures were below
average—the warm afternoons versus cool mornings leading to the somewhat muted
statewide average temperature statistics. The Mesonet recorded temperatures of
90 degrees on eight separate days in October, with the state’s highest reading
of 96 degrees coming on the 22nd at Grandfield. The first freeze of the season
occurred in northern Oklahoma on October 17 when several sites slipped below 32
degrees. All but 18 of the Mesonet’s 120 sites had at least touched the
freezing mark by the end of October. The state’s lowest temperature of the
month was 17 degrees at Nowata and Vinita on the 19th. The first 10 months of
the year were a degree above normal at 64.5 degrees, the 21st warmest January-
October statewide on record.













The Climate Prediction Center’s November outlooks show possible good news for
Oklahoma over the next month. While the temperature outlook indicates increased
odds for above normal temperatures across the entire state, the precipitation
outlook shows increased odds of above normal moisture across the eastern two-
thirds of Oklahoma. That leads to a November drought outlook with drought
improving—although remaining—for all but extreme western Oklahoma and the
Panhandle, where the drought’s intensity is expected to remain at current
levels.







###

Gary McManus
State Climatologist
Oklahoma Mesonet
Oklahoma Climatological Survey
gmcmanus@mesonet.org