Ticker for April 14, 2016

                
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April 14, 2016     April 14, 2016     April 14, 2016     April 14, 2016


The good bad bad bad and so so news




Well that escalated, errrr, slowly I guess. We've been talking about this slow-
moving storm approaching from the west that's going to inundate western Oklahoma
with several inches of rainfall. It might have slowed down a bit more, but the
rain totals are still on track to be a tad high.



And it's not a moment too soon since as promised, our drought map has worsened
across the driest area of the state, NW OK.



We now have two areas of D2 in the state, and that's the first time we've seen
"Severe" drought indicated on the OK Drought Monitor map since Oct. 27, 2015. It's
still only 5% of the state, but 'tis enough. And we have 26% of the state in D1
and 36% in D0 or "Abnormally Dry" conditions.

So this storm comes at a very opportune time, and it is a classic slow-mover
too, with a wide open Gulf of Mexico at its disposal thanks to a rapid return
of moisture, just what we've been missing for the last three months with
quick moving systems with little chance for return moisture.
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Okay, now for some bad news, the El Nino (frankly, a disappointment for much
of 2016, although a winner for the end of 2015), is quickly fading. As noted
by the NWS Southern Region Headquarters Climate Focal Point Victor Murphy, the
weekly value of the "Nino 3.4" sea surface temperature anomaly decreased to
1.3C this week, the coolest weekly value since June of 2015. The Nino 3.4 is a
particular region in the equatorial waters that is considered the standard for
measuring the ENSO signal (i.e., La Nina, El Nino or neutral conditions). That
region's values are the second time series down on this figure.



Also from Victor: " Over the past 14 weeks, the Nino 3.4 SSTA had decreased by
1.4C. About 0.1C per week. At this pace, we should be in ENSO neutral conditions
by early June."

In the ENSO Diagnostic Discussion released this morning by the Climate Prediction
Center, they note:

"Nearly all models predict further weakening of El Ni?o, with a
transition to ENSO-neutral likely during late spring or early
summer 2016."



Remember from past Tickers, anomalies above that +0.5C line signify El Nino
while below the -0.5C line indicate La Nina.

Here's some more bad news. Due to the rapid decline of the El Nino and the
increasing chances of La Nina as we get into next fall and winter, CPC has
officially a "La Nina Watch." Now just like a severe storm or tornado watch for
our area, this watch puts on notice for the POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT of a La Nina
within the next 6 months.




As you can see from the probability table, the chances for ENSO Neutral
conditions increase to 56% for the May-July 3-month period, but then the chances
for La Nina increase dramatically, peaking with a 71% chance in the November-
January period.

However, CPC still has their "El Nino Advisory" in effect since El Nino is still
alive and kicking for the moment. Both the El Nino now and the La Nina later can
have possible impacts for our area. As Victor notes:

"Short Term: Through the rest of spring, (i.e. thru May), I would
expect the waning El Nino to still be the main driver for impacts in
(the Southern Region). This would mean a continued higher than normal
probability of above average precipitation...beginning this weekend."

As for the La Nina next fall and winter, we need to remember that COULD mean
drier than normal weather for the Southern Plains, including Oklahoma.



While there is no indication of the strength of this possible La Nina, recall
that it was a strong 2010-12 La Nina that kicked off the drought of 2010-15.

So I guess today's Ticker contains bad news (DM map), good news (big rains
this weekend and early next week), so-so news (El Nino fading, but still
impactful), and bad news (possible La Nina for next cool season).

Oh wait! I almost forgot, there's also a chance of severe weather out west this
weekend!





That's a Sugar Ray Leonard "last 10 seconds of the round" flurry to end today's
bout.

Youngsters, Sugar Ray Leonard was a "boxer" in a sport that used to be popular
called "boxing." Look it up on the intertubes, it was pretty cool.

Gary McManus
State Climatologist
Oklahoma Mesonet
Oklahoma Climatological Survey
(405) 325-2253
gmcmanus@mesonet.org