Ticker for September 25, 2012

                
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September 25, 2012 September 25, 2012 September 25, 2012 September 25, 2012


Potpourri

Miriam, we hardly knew ya?

The HPC is still thinking good thoughts about Miriam, the stalled front and
Oklahoma.



I haven't seen much optimism from local forecasters just yet, and there are
pretty good reasons for that:

1. Miriam to curve back to the northeast
2. She has to survive the trip over the Rockies
C. There needs to be moisture return from the Gulf for her to work with (the
mid-level moisture that can make it over the mountains ain't the key ... the
Gulf of Mexico runs Bartertown for Oklahoma)

The tracks still look doable, at least, and good return flow from the Gulf
should begin shortly with these strong southerly winds.



Best to keep hope alive, however, because...

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How Now Brown Pasture

Oklahoma has once again turned a nice shade of brown/yellow after some timely
rains a few weeks ago. Rainfall over the last 30 days has taken a turn for the
worse along with our vegetation, lakes, stock ponds, soils, etc. The 1.49 inches
we've seen on average across the state over the last 30 days is 2.09 inches below
normal and the 10th driest Aug. 26-Sep. 24 dating back to 1921. Only extreme
northeastern Oklahoma has been above normal through that time.




This departure from average greenness map is now a week old, but it shows the
pitiful shape of our vegetation, at least relative to where we should be at
this time of the year.


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Go jump in a lake!

Just check the depth first. Lake levels have continued to drop through September
for the most part. Some are even facing levels worse than last year. Here
are the levels for select Oklahoma lakes. The figures are percent capacity of
the conservation pool. If they're above 100%, they're into the flood pool. Easy
to see how well off most were in early spring (May 2) and how far they've come
since then. They are sorted by lowest capacity as of September 24.

-****-
May 2	  Sep 24    Lowest (2011)    1-year change
Altus Dam	          23	    18	         16	           2
Pine Creek		  99	    41
Tom Steed		  61	    43	         54	         -11
Canton		          54	    45	         27	          18
Hugo		          93	    49	         56	          -7
Waurika		          72	    57	         73	         -16
Great Salt Plains	 105	    60	          1	          59
Foss		          75	    65	         77	         -12
Fort Supply		 100	    70	         61	           9
Thunderbird		  90	    70	         73	          -3
Eufaula		         104	    71	         73	          -2
Skiatook		  84	    72	         64	           8
Broken Bow		  99	    72	         71	           1
Tenkiller		 101	    73	         83	         -10
Keystone		 106	    74	         73	           1
Fort Cobb		  91	    76	         80	          -4
Wister		         100	    84	         73	          11
McGee Creek		 104	    86	         77	           9
Oologah		         126	    86	         86	           0
Arbuckle		 104	    88	         77	          11
Denison Dam (Texoma)	 104	    89	         63	          26
Sardis		         101	    92	         88	           4
Arcadia		         101	    93	         82	          11
Fort Gibson		  68	    95	         17	          78
Kaw		         110	   100	         93	           7
Pensacola (Grand)	 117	   104	         93	          11
Hudson		         116	   104	         99	           5
-***-
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Not helping matters is how hot it has been again (and again and again and again!)
Lows this morning approached record warm levels according to the Mesonet readings.




Average highs for this time of the year should be low 80s and lows should be
in the upper 50s to low 60s. We've been there occasionally, it just doesn't
seem to stick around.

Gary McManus
Associate State Climatologist
Oklahoma Climatological Survey
(405) 325-2253
gmcmanus@mesonet.org