MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... October 5, 2010 October 5, 2010 October 5, 2010 October 5, 2010
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Note to Ticker readers:
As you read the press release below, I just wanted to add a bit of additional information about the forecasted strength of the current La Ni?a. As noted by the experts at the Southeast Climate Consortium at Florida State University:
"Centers around the world that run El Ni?o/La Ni?a prediction models are in overwhelming consensus in predicting a strengthening and long-lasting La Ni?a. In fact, chances are good that the current La Ni?a will develop into one of the stronger events in the last 60 years."
Much like last year's very strong El Ni?o, a very strong La Ni?a no doubt stands a greater chance to affect our weather patterns than a less intense episode.
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La Ni?a Could Bring Mild, Dry Winter to Oklahoma
October has gotten off to a cool start in Oklahoma, including a few low temperatures that fell below freezing the last several days. Despite the cool beginning, however, the National Weather Service?s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) sees an increased chance for warmer- and drier-than-normal weather in Oklahoma during October. Looking farther out, the CPC indicates similar conditions could persist through the winter months, meaning a milder but possibly drier winter for Oklahoma. The culprit behind this possible disruption of Oklahoma?s weather is none other than El Ni?o?s counterpart, La Ni?a.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20101005/cpc_october_precip_outlook.gif http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20101005/cpc_october_temperature_outlook.gif
La Ni?a occurs when sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific become cooler than normal. Much like El Ni?o, this cooling of sea surface temperatures can influence weather around the globe, including that of the United States. Impacts from La Ni?a include the tendency for a warmer and drier cool season in the southern United States, along with cooler and wetter conditions in the Midwest and Pacific Northwest. The current La Ni?a is expected to continue strengthening and remain in place throughout the 2010-11 winter season.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20101005/enso_model_forecasts.png
La Ni?a?s impacts on Oklahoma?s economy can be significant. A warmer and drier cool season can have adverse effects on Oklahoma?s agricultural industry. With the planting of next year?s wheat crop underway, moisture becomes a key ingredient for establishing that crop and developing it through to maturity. That wheat can also be used to provide forage during the winter months for cattle producers. Unfortunately, Oklahoma?s key wheat-producing areas are beginning to see dry conditions spread due to below normal rainfall over the last couple of months. Rainfall deficits due to La Ni?a?s influence would come at an inopportune time. Another negative impact of warmer and drier conditions is a possible increase in wildfires, which the state saw during the dry winter of 2005-06.
Not all La Ni?a impacts are necessarily negative. Cooler weather in the northern parts of the country can boost Oklahoma?s natural gas industry, and therefore its economy, by increasing demand and keeping prices higher. The state reaped that benefit last winter during a particularly cold and stormy winter in the eastern half of the country. Oklahoma residents, on the other hand, could see cheaper heating bills.
A warmer and drier winter does not necessarily translate into a season free of ice and snow. Significant individual ice and snow events can still occur within longer dry periods. For example, severe ice storms struck Oklahoma during the La Ni?a winters of December 2000 and 2007.
It is important to remember that each La Ni?a episode can develop differently and be influenced by other climate factors. However, increased confidence is present in long-range outlooks when La Ni?a or El Ni?o conditions are present, especially during the winter months.
Gary McManus Associate State Climatologist Oklahoma Climatological Survey (405) 325-2253 gmcmanus@mesonet.org
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