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. . . Ticker for August 16, 2018 . . .
MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... August 16, 2018 August 16, 2018 August 16, 2018 August 16, 2018 Round 2?? http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20180816/Todays-severe-outlook.png Remember two nights ago when all May broke out in mid-August? Well, apparently it ain't over just yet. More severe weather is *possible* later today into tonight, and as you can see from the Storm Prediction Center maps above, it could get dicey across most of the state, but especially into the NE quadrant. The tornado threat isn't zero, but it's not the big worry today. More of a wind/hail/heavy rain thingamajig. And parts of NE OK do need that heavy rain (but some parts don't!): http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20180816/3day-rain-totals.png http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20180816/latest.oklahoma.flood.gif That's not the only chance, either. Those rain (and storms and svr wx) chances will extend into the weekend. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20180816/NWS-norman-friday-severe.png http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20180816/NWS-norman-saturday-severe.png Severe weather aside (as if that was even possible!)...more rain as well. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20180816/7day-precip-forecast.gif Today's Drought Monitor report, taking into account the rain that fell through Tuesday morning, does show some improvements across southern and NW OK. Unfortunately, most of the heavy rain fell in areas not really hurting as bad as those others. The 1-week DM change map shows where those improvements were. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20180816/20180814_OK_trd.png http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20180816/1week-DM-change.png The reason we still have so much drought is detailed on the 2-month DM change map. Lots of intensification across southern and NE OK over that time frame, which matches up pretty well with the March 1-Aug. 15 pct of normal map from the Mesonet. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20180816/2month-DM-change.png http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20180816/Growing-Season-pct-normal-rain.png But how does September look, as we gaze 2-6 weeks out? Well, according to the Climate Prediction Center, we have increased odds of above normal temperatures across southern through northwestern OK and below normal precipitation across western OK, but especially the western Panhandle. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20180816/sept-temp-outlook.gif http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20180816/sept-precip-outlook.gif When we extend that out another couple of months to encompass the September- November period, we see increased odds of above normal precipitation and equal chances of above-, near- and below-normal precip. No, not "normal," but equal odds of any of those three categories occurring. Regardless, that would be what we saw looking back when we reach the end of November. Any weather extremes would be smoothed out, so remember...day-to-day weather will still give us the old Oklahoma Roller Coaster at times. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20180816/sept-nov-temp-outlook.gif http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20180816/sept-nov-precip-outlook.gif CPC's Seasonal Drought Outlook for today through November bears some good news with drought expected to improve or even completely removed over much of the state, with just the edge along the Red River expected to persist. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20180816/Aug-Nov-drought-outlook.png Let's get through the next few days first. Then we can worry about September, and then October, and then November. Of course, by that time we'll be worrying about December, then January, then February. Heck, we should just get our winter coats out now! Gary McManus State Climatologist Oklahoma Mesonet Oklahoma Climatological Survey (405) 325-2253 gmcmanus@mesonet.org ================================================== The OCS/Mesonet Ticker https://ticker.mesonet.org/ To subscribe or unsubscribe from the Ticker or for questions about the Ticker or its content Phone or Email the Ticker Manager at OCS Phone: 405-325-2253 Email: ticker@mesonet.org --------------------------------------------------- -C- Copyright 2024 Oklahoma Climatological Survey ===================================================