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August 16, 2011 August 16, 2011 August 16, 2011 August 16, 2011
To drought, or not to drought
I deal with many questions in my life. Why are there towels in my bathroom that
I'm not allowed to use? Why does the "Big Gulp" AND the lesser "Gulp" both cost
49 cents at 7-11 (special promotion, limited time only)? Do you reduce D4
drought levels in the summer after 2-3 inches of rain? The first two questions
might never get answered, but the third is what we are pondering at the moment.
The improvements in the northeast drought situation are obvious with widespread
amounts of 4-6 inches in an area that had just re-emerged into drought a couple
of months ago.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20110816/rainrfc.168hr.png
The real question is in central through south central Oklahoma, areas that have
been in exceptional drought for quite some time. Does 2-3 inches of rainfall
make a difference? Well, the obvious answer is "YES!". But how much of a
difference? It gave the topsoil a good wetting in those parts, and will
probably allow for a brief green-up of the vegetation that hadn't died already.
Frankly (Garyly doesn't always work), I expected a better report from the field
on topsoil moisture. A six percent improvement is better than nothing, however.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20110816/topsoil_moisture.png
That topsoil moisture won't last long with the triple-digit temperatures
returning and the sun working its magic. Very little of that rain ran off nor
did it percolate into the deeper soil layers. Without reinforcements, it will
be a bump in the road. Moistening the soil column to depth and filling up
farm ponds and reservoirs is a process. Will 2-3 inches of rain quench areas
that were 15+ inches down for the year?
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20110816/caldel.png
I don't think we need a Prince of Denmark to answer that one. Or a peasant from
Buffalo, for that matter.
********************************
We've already gotten off to a warm start this morning with the low 80s and
upper 70s, reaching or besting records in many areas.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20110816/today.TAIR.min.grad.png
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20110816/tmin_records.png
Yesterday's 104-degree reading at Grandfield leaves the count at 80 days above
100 degrees this year.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20110816/yesterday.TAIR.max.grad.png
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20110816/tmax.ge100.png
That leaves them seven days away from breaking Oklahoma's all-time record of 86
at Hollis in 1956. My feeling is that record will fall in the next couple of
weeks. I'd bet someone else's reputation on it.
Now, to "Big Gulp" or "Gulp" ... that is the question.
Gary McManus
Associate State Climatologist
Oklahoma Climatological Survey
(405) 325-2253
gmcmanus@mesonet.org
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