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August 4, 2011 August 4, 2011 August 4, 2011 August 4, 2011
HE'S CUT!!
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20110804/drago.jpg
Is the heat dome that has made our lives miserable since the beginning of June
starting to wane once again, right after another extended ebb? The latest 6-10 and
8-14 day outlooks from the CPC indicate it might shift a bit more to the
southeast.
6-10 day (August 9-13) Outlooks:
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20110804/610temp.new.gif
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20110804/610prcp.new.gif
8-14 day (August 11-17) Outlooks:
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20110804/814temp.new.gif
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20110804/814prcp.new.gif
Any weakening might allow for a little cooler weather (i.e., instead of highs in
the 110-degree range, maybe the low 100s) and a few more chances for rain. And
there was a scattering of showers and storms across the state yesterday (sorry
southwest and south central ... again!), but the emphasis is on "scattered."
These are not drought-busting rains, but very appreciated.
The newest U.S. Drought Monitor map released this morning, to which the entire
Ticker Staff supplies input, has more maroon on it than an A&M fan on a fall
Saturday. Not a good look for either (sorry, nearly football season).
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20110804/ok_dm.png
Much as I feared back in the spring, the percentage of Oklahoma now in
exceptional drought is 64%, up from 5% three months ago. We didn't want to see
this drought get a taste of summer, but it did, and the intensifying drought
and heat is the result. The Seasonal Drought Outlook released this morning
again provides no good news for much of the Southern Plains and Oklahoma.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20110804/season_drought.gif
In the CPC's own words:
"Short, medium, and extended range forecasts, including the CPC 6-10
and 8-14 day outlooks all indicate enhanced chances for below-median
rainfall across the southern Plains states. The CPC August outlook
maintains elevated chances of below-median rainfall for most of the
southern Great Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. The seasonal
precipitation outlook for August-October 2011 calls for equal chances
(EC) of below, near, and above-median precipitation for this region.
The Constructed Analog on Soil moisture (CAS) outlook for the end of
August and the end of October persist the dryness across the southern
Great Plains. Based on these outlooks, continued drought persistence
is likely.
Forecast confidence for the southern Plains is moderate (near the coast)
to high (well inland)."
The damage to Oklahoma's topsoil and pastures is nearly complete. In fact, it
can't get much worse, a horrible condition going into the fall months and
planting season. Now 100% of the state's topsoil is listed as either short or
very short of moisture.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20110804/soil_moisture.png
The percent of pasture and range land in good or excellent condition is now at
2%.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20110804/rangeland.png
I know of no silver linings in this. It can't get much worse?
Gary McManus
Associate State Climatologist
Oklahoma Climatological Survey
(405) 325-2253
gmcmanus@mesonet.org
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