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. . . Ticker for May 15, 2014 . . .
MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... May 15, 2014 May 15, 2014 May 15, 2014 May 15, 2014 Yeah, but it's a dry cool Most avid Ticker readers (Hi Mom!) know of my disdain for cooler weather, so the last few days have been unwelcome, greatly!, by me. Look at these low temperatures for the past couple of days, after all. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140515/yesterdays-lows.png http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140515/todays-lows.png There was even a freeze in the OK Panhandle yesterday, for crying out loud! Now I keep hearing how nice this weather is with the lows in the 40s and the highs in the 60s and 70s as well. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140515/yesterdays-highs.png http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140515/todays-highs.png Normal highs and lows for this time of year are in the 80-ish and 60-ish range, respectively, so we're about 10-15 degrees below normal. For those folks "loving" this weather, let me tell you why they're wrong! And the strawberries, too. that's where I had them. They laughed at me and made jokes but I proved beyond the shadow of a doubt and with... geometric logic... Whoa, I went all Captain Queeg there in my excitement ("The Caine Mutiny," anyone? Humphrey Bogart? Fred MacMurray? Never mind.). Back to why this cold weather is bad. Because we need rain, and lots of it. The current pattern we are in has scoured the atmosphere of moisture and kept the return of such at bay from the Gulf of Mexico. There are still light showers appearing each day thanks to cool air aloft and the daytime heating of the surface creating instability, but the amounts are just too light in this cool, dry air. Just look at the first 15 days of May, smack dab in the middle of Oklahoma's wettest season (at least for most of the state) that tends to last through about mid-June. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140515/may1-15-totals.png http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140515/may1-15-pct-normal.png While the statewide average is about 1.3", that's still 1.2" below normal, or about 50% of normal. And you can tell from the maps, almost all of even that meager statewide total is due to heavy rains down in the southeastern corner of the state. Again, we are dealing with a horrible spring and year-to-date thus far when it comes to moisture. Here are the spring maps (climatological spring, which begins March 1). http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140515/march1-may15-totals.png http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140515/march1-may15-pct-normal.png Once again, the SE leads the way. For the Panhandle and NC Oklahoma, this spring thus far has been the driest since 1921 for those areas with area-wide averages of 0.8" and 1.5", respectively (or 16% and 20% of normal, respectively). The year-to-date is even worse (through yesterday). http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140515/caltot.png http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140515/caldel.png http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140515/calpct.png I would quote you the stats, but check them out for yourself. Lots of "1st driest since 1921) in there. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140515/cal-stats.png Yep, for the Panhandle, NC, NE and Central climate divisions, they are seeing their driest such period since 1921. WC is quite the flower with their second driest. Overall, the second driest Jan 1-May 14 since 1921 with a statewide average of 5.5", 6.5" below normal. Only the 1936 period was drier with 4.8". 1936 (if only I could put numbers in all CAPS for effect)!! Trust me, 1936 is NOT (see how I did that?) a year you want to be hanging out with. Your Mothers would tell you that you need to find better friends to run around with ... no 1930s or 1950s. All that brings us to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor map, which saw some improvements in the SE where the best rains fell, and some deterioration in NC OK where the deficits continue to mount. There was also a bit of improvement across Grady and Caddo counties where up to 4 inches fell with a series of training storms. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140515/20140513_OK_trd.png So we now have 50% of the state in at least Extreme (D3) to Exceptional (D4) drought, and 65% in at least Severe (D2) drought. What's scary is that it looks so 2011-ish to me. Here's the map from this time back in 2011. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140515/20110517_ok_text.png One thing that HAD been different between this year and 2011 was the heat. Now even those statistics are starting to catch up. Check out the days above 90 degrees and 100 degrees between the two similar periods, 2011 vs. 2014. 2011 http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140515/tmax_ge90.20110514.png http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140515/tmax_ge100.20110514.png 2014 http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140515/tmax.ge90.2014.png http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140515/tmax.ge100.2014.png Okay, enough horrible comparisons with 2011. Even I'm not that crazy of a warminista. What do we see in terms of rainfall for the next 7 days? Well, not nearly enough. It looks nice and green, but trust me, this is a mere pittance for this time of year. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140515/7day-rain-forecast.gif There might be some hope after that. The 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks from CPC show increased odds of above normal precipitation through those periods (let's hope that doesn't mean the bad stuff that comes with rain in May, but hey ... it is Oklahoma). http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140515/may20-24-precip-outlook.gif http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140515/may22-28-precip-outlook.gif There's your hope on the horizon portion of today's Ticker. Not quite so much optimism for the June and Summer outlooks, but there's just a tad of hope in there (although both periods look warmer than normal to CPC). And a bit of increased odds of above normal precip for northern Oklahoma during June. June Outlooks http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140515/june-precip-outlooks.gif http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140515/june-temp-outlooks.gif Summer (June-August) Outlooks http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140515/summer-precip-outlooks.gif http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140515/summer-temp-outlooks.gif Remember, the white "Equal Chances (EC)" area does not mean they expect normal rain amounts. That's a signal that above-, below- and near-normal precip amounts all have equal chance of occurring. That all leads to the newest Season Drought Outlook. This is a figure that say "what do we think the drought will look like at the end of August?" Well, it ain't pretty if you're in drought right now in Oklahoma. That drought is expected to persist or even intensify through the summer. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140515/season_drought.png That would be bad news for Oklahoma, of course, and PROBABLY mean a scorcher. Extreme drought normally goes hand-in-hand for Oklahoma. Now, back to those missing strawberries! Gary McManus State Climatologist Oklahoma Mesonet Oklahoma Climatological Survey (405) 325-2253 gmcmanus@mesonet.org ================================================== The OCS/Mesonet Ticker https://ticker.mesonet.org/ To subscribe or unsubscribe from the Ticker or for questions about the Ticker or its content Phone or Email the Ticker Manager at OCS Phone: 405-325-2253 Email: ticker@mesonet.org --------------------------------------------------- -C- Copyright 2024 Oklahoma Climatological Survey ===================================================