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August 29, 2023 August 29, 2023 August 29, 2023 August 29, 2023
Sprinkles anyone?
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230829/610prcp.new.png
I can hear ya out there..."But Gary, surely it will rain before the second week
of September!"
Yeah, probably so, and don't call me Shirley. But will it be meaningful rainfall?
I'm not sure what that even means--all rainfall has some meaning, but does that
mean that its meaning means an end to our flash drought?
Unfortunately not. Just looking at some of the forecast model output for that time
frame tells me the chances for SIGNIFICANT rainfall, those that would put the
flash drought on the back burner for a bit, are pretty slim as of now.
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230829/gfs.png
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230829/european.png
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230829/canadian.png
Ah, that's okay. I mean, what do the Europeans, Americans (GFS), and Canadians
know anyway? I'm waiting for the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg to weigh in! But not
to worry too much, those single model runs don't account for any pattern
changes that might take place. However, the worry is that those model runs don't
see any pattern changes taking place. It's not a "chicken vs. egg" thing, more
like a "what is a chicken??" thing.
While you're pondering the great questions of the universe, I'll just say that
the pessimistic forecast means our flash drought (and long-term drought for
those in far SW and NC Oklahoma) will continue unabated for awhile longer. The
non-official "official" beginning of this flash drought would be traced back to
around July 12, so as we look at the stats going forward from there, we see
that it will probably approach 2 months long before it has a chance to get
better.
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230829/cig.July12-Aug29.png
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230829/july12-aug29-pct-normal.png
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230829/july12-aug29-rain-stats.png
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230829/mesonet.rainfall.quarterinch.png
This is again from our Canadian friends...the probability of seeing at least
an inch (approximately) of rain between now and Sept. 12, which would be 2
months from the beginning of the flash drought.
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230829/inch-accum-prob-thru.sept.12.png
Never fear though, we have the great equalizer coming soon.
No, not a tropical system, although that would help.
The Great State Fair of Oklahoma! Opening date, Sept. 14.
Gary McManus
State Climatologist
Oklahoma Mesonet
Oklahoma Climatological Survey
gmcmanus@mesonet.org
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