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. . . Ticker for August 27, 2012 . . .
MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... August 27, 2012 August 27, 2012 August 27, 2012 August 27, 2012 Very nice rains ... could there be more? Yes, just as I (okay, the NWS folks might have had something to do with it) predicted, the state did see some very beneficial rainfall over the weekend. It might have taken a bit longer to arrive for most, but arrive it did. Here is the Mesonet/RFC map for the event. We'll go back five days to try and capture it all. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20120827/rainrfc.120hr.png There were several great tracks of rain as storms trained over the same area for a few hours. It looks like Kingfisher through Payne County got the best rains, with 2-4 inches apparent from the Mesonet gauges and also the radar estimates. That area then extends up into the northeastern corner of the state, where 1-3 inches appears common. It was a good general rain of about an inch for most of the area otherwise. Those left out are obvious in the light blue. The event brings the August statewide average up to 2.25 inches, which is only 0.15 inches below normal for the Aug. 1-27 period. The Panhandle and much of western and northern Oklahoma are still down for the month ... some parts exceedingly so. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20120827/aug1-27-tots.png http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20120827/aug1-27-pct.png The question now is, how much did it help the drought? We have to be cautious here and not rely upon rainfall statistics alone. The forecast for the state so far is for a hot and dry week ahead. Given that it is still August and the underlying drought conditions, that might make short work of any improvements we've seen. We'll be taking a look at all the factors and see how well they have responded, basically a short-term vs. long-term balancing act. Take a look at where we are now since May 1. This is what will give you pause while considering where to adjust the Drought Monitor map. Some of the areas that saw nice rains this week had not seen much at all in the previous four months. There's still enough red and orange in those maps to supply a pretty good week of bedlam! http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20120827/may1-aug27-tots.png http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20120827/may1-aug27-dep.png http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20120827/may1-aug27-pct.png In fact, the May 1-Aug. 27 period is still the second driest such period on record for the state going back to 1921. -****- Region Avg. Tot Dep. Pct. Rank Since 1921 Panhandle 4.91" -6.07" 45% 1st driest N. Central 5.18" -9.25" 36% 1st driest Northeast 8.20" -7.76" 51% 3rd driest W. Central 5.55" -7.66" 42% 2nd driest Central 8.57" -6.29" 58% 5th driest E. Central 8.65" -7.42" 54% 2nd driest Southwest 7.68" -5.78" 57% 6th driest S. Central 9.18" -5.41" 63% 11th driest Southeast 11.83" -5.21" 69% 15th driest Statewide 7.74" -6.77" 53% 2nd driest -***- A few of the impacts would/should have already begun to improve. The soil moisture in the upper 10 inches has responded quite well. Check out at all the green at 2 inches! http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20120827/2inch-fwi.png Still a lot of brown at 10 inches, but some really nice improvements as evidenced by the 7-day change map. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20120827/10inch-fwi.png http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20120827/7day-change-fwi.png The trouble, again, is that the recharge hasn't made it down to the lower levels just yet. Check out the map at 24 inches. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20120827/24inch-fwi.png But, that moistening at 10 inches is a start. Reinforcing rainfalls will add more green to that map at 24 inches. When might those rains come? Maybe from our erstwhile friend meandering around in the tropics? Each successive landfall forecast for Tropical Storm Isaac (expected to become Hurricane Isaac soon) has pushed it farther to the west. The latest has New Orleans directly in the path, and after that a trip up in our direction. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20120827/isaac-forecast-cone.gif So eastern Oklahoma is in the probability cone from the National Hurricane Center. Some of the individual models have the remnants coming right up over Oklahoma! http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20120827/isaac-models.png But that's the trick, you don't need the center of circulation to travel over you to get rainfall. These circulations are extremely large, and they carry lots of moisture with them. Only time will tell what Isaac plans to do with the weak steering winds about. However, another reinforcing rainfall instead of the hot, dry week ahead would do us nicely! Gary McManus Associate State Climatologist Oklahoma Climatological Survey (405) 325-2253 gmcmanus@mesonet.org ================================================== The OCS/Mesonet Ticker https://ticker.mesonet.org/ To subscribe or unsubscribe from the Ticker or for questions about the Ticker or its content Phone or Email the Ticker Manager at OCS Phone: 405-325-2253 Email: ticker@mesonet.org --------------------------------------------------- -C- Copyright 2024 Oklahoma Climatological Survey ===================================================