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. . . Ticker for August 24, 2023 . . .
MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... August 24, 2023 August 24, 2023 August 24, 2023 August 24, 2023 Double trouble https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230824/pct30day_rain.current.png And just like that, drought more than doubles in Oklahoma, going from around 13% a month ago to more than 28% on this week's new map. (Does math...wait, I was told there would be no math!) https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230824/20230822_ok_trd.png Yes, there is math involved, and unfortunately, a Summer of 2022-style flash drought. Driven by the extreme temperatures we've had in the last month-plus, lots of sun, and not lots of rain, we asked the U.S. Drought Monitor's national author to add a large swatch of moderate drought (D1) across south central Oklahoma, and an expansion of abnormally dry (D0) conditions surrounding that, signalling a larger area in danger of drought expansion/intensification. We asked for a doubling of hair on my scalp as well, but that was unfortunately denied by genetics. You can see those obvious changes from this week, and then over the last month. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230824/current_OK_chng_1W.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230824/current_OK_chng_4W.png But make no mistake, the near-historic dryness in south central Oklahoma (and extremely dry areas covering most of the southwestern one-half of the state) doesn't stop at 30 days. That's an arbitrary construct of climate tools that hinders us at times. No, this dry spell goes back a a month and a half to over 40 days. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230824/mesonet.rainfall.tenthinch.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230824/mesonet.rainfall.quarterinch.png And then again there is the long-term dryness fueling those extreme (D3) drought areas in north central and far southwest Oklahoma. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230824/delwateryear_rain.current.png The heat wave fueling this here flash drought is fairly obvious as well, dating back (much like the heat of last summer started on June 11 very abruptly) to July 21. Now for southwest OK, it goes back to the beginning of summer and before, but for our burgeoning 100s across the rest of the state, that's the date. Rhyme unintended, I pretended. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230824/heat-wave.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230824/tmax.ge100.png The changes in the last month or so all point to worsening conditions, leading to our current flash drought. Soil moisture, dwindling. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230824/7day-change-soil.moisture.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230824/16inch-plant-avail-water-pct.png Even on the USDA's "short-to-very short" maps, the change in the last month is evident, with the percentage of the state with those conditions basically doubling over that period. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230824/july23-short-very.short.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230824/aug20-short-very.short.png Fire danger has increased dramatically across southern OK as well as the vegetation has died or gone dormant. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230824/current.RG.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230824/current.KBDI.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230824/16inch-PAW-fire-risk.png Current lake levels also reflect the long-term dryness with low levels in SW, south central, and NE OK. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230824/ok-lake-levels.png Now for the good news... Waiting... Oh yeah, we're gonna remain hot for the next few days, then sometime on Saturday or Sunday, depending on where you are, a cold front will pass through the area and bring us cooler weather for a few days. And maybe a chance of rain. Not drought-busting rain, but at least some dust-settlers and cloudiness. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230824/nws-norman-7day-temps.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230824/7day-rain-forecast.gif Yeah, that's not a lot of rain at all. Maybe somebody will surprise us with a bit more, but the rainfall outlook is not pretty. Check out this here Canadian model's output, showing the chances we will accumulate at least an inch of rainfall through Sept. 8. Mostly less than 20%. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230824/chances-1inch-accum.gif And our heat wave will return later next week. Look for upper-90s and low-100s by the weekend. It doesn't look like we'll see the crushing humidity giving us these record heat indexes (indices?), so a bit more manageable. But that lack of humidity comes with a lack of rainfall. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230824/aug31-sept6.png So the damage to our soils, surface water, and vegetation will continue through another couple of weeks, it appears, thus propelling the flash drought forward. The good news is that this flash drought isn't starting in early June like last year's version. And we still have hope with a bit of a moisture boost from El Nino later in the fall through the winter. We ARE currently seeing El Nino conditions down there in the equatorial Pacific, and it's almost a certainty those conditions will extend through the winter into early spring. However, the atmospheric portion of the El Nino is still a bit weakly connected to the sea surface anomaly. And that's important because the atmospheric changes are what drives the enhanced sub-tropical jet to extend farther east and enhance the southern storm track. If that doesn't respond more strongly, we might not see as robust of a change in our precip that we've seen in previous strong and very strong El Nino episodes. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230824/strong-el-nino-precip.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230824/super-strong-el-nino-precip.png Lots of possibilities to turn this thing around in a hurry. I'm betting we see a bit more manageable weather as we get deeper into September. Until then...I'm hitting the pop-tarts and chocolate milk hard. Gary McManus State Climatologist Oklahoma Mesonet Oklahoma Climatological Survey gmcmanus@mesonet.org ================================================== The OCS/Mesonet Ticker https://ticker.mesonet.org/ To subscribe or unsubscribe from the Ticker or for questions about the Ticker or its content Phone or Email the Ticker Manager at OCS Phone: 405-325-2253 Email: ticker@mesonet.org --------------------------------------------------- -C- Copyright 2024 Oklahoma Climatological Survey ===================================================