MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... July 22, 2011 July 22, 2011 July 22, 2011 July 22, 2011
A double-whammy for agriculture in 2011
Faithful Ticker reader Eric Hunt of the University of Nebraska-Lincoln sent us some fascinating - and depressing - graphics a couple of days ago so I thought I would share them with you. Oklahoma agricultural producers are obviously having a tough go of it this year thanks to the drought. Eric has captured that by looking at the percentages of the wheat and cotton crops rated "poor" or "very poor" in the USDA's Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletins since 1989.
Now it's not that this is the first bad year for wheat. This first graphic showing the percentages of Oklahoma's wheat crop rated poor or very poor in the last week of April, May and June bears that out.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20110722/OK_Wheat.gif
The droughts of the recent past stand out pretty well in 1996, 2002, 2006, 2009 and 2011 (a trend, perhaps?). The 2009 crop was actually affected by two freeze events as well, so drought wasn't the only player there. The 2007 crop was also an interesting case that had nothing to do with drought. Notice that for April and May, the crop was doing wonderfully, coming back from a late freeze event earlier that year. The problems arose when it started raining in June
(insert dramatic music here)
and kept raining.
By the time the rain had stopped much of the wheat crop had to be abandoned due to disease and the inability to get the combines into the fields.
The crop this year was possibly the worst of all the bunch with relatively high percentages of both poor and very poor ratings. This is well known, it was not a bumper crop this year. This next graphic is the kicker (of this Ticker ... nope, still not a poet!). Take a look at the percentage of Oklahoma wheat and cotton rated in very poor condition in June since 1989.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20110722/OK_Wheat_Cotton.gif
Once again, the bad wheat crops show up pretty clearly. The cotton crops, at least during June, have always been in pretty good shape prior to this year. The double-whammy is evident in 2011, however. I'll quote Eric here:
"2011 is setting records (at least in this period of record) for the percentage of wheat and cotton in poor and very poor condition. There have been other years in this period where the wheat had problems (and not always due to drought) but this is the first time in many years that a very poor wheat crop has been followed by a very poor cotton crop. 2006 was certainly not a good year but I don't think it will hold a candle to this year in terms of yield reduction, as I highly doubt the lack of rain and 100+ heat everyday this month is helping the cotton."
Truer words have never been spoken, and yet another example of the precarious business of making a living relying on Mother Nature.
Gary McManus Associate State Climatologist Oklahoma Climatological Survey (405) 325-2253 gmcmanus@mesonet.org
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