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October 21, 2022 October 21, 2022 October 21, 2022 October 21, 2022
Frankenweather
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20221021/next-five-days.png
Strap in. Batten down the hatches. Hatten down the batches.
Whatever it takes.
Oklahoma is in for a wild ride over the next 5 days, thanks to a powerful storm
system that's about to hit the Pacific Northwest and come rolling down to our area
in a classic late fall/early winter pattern, bringing lots of wind, moisture, and
lift with it.
So we have pretty darned bad fire danger over the next 3 days...certain.
Then a cold front...certain.
And possible multiple rounds of showers/storms...probable.
And some snow in the Panhandle...possible.
Now here's the deal...remember that this storm system isn't even over land yet
where it can be sampled by our much-better land-based instruments, whose data
gets fed into the forecast models to give more accurate forecasts. It's chaos,
man!
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20221021/forecasting-chaos.png
So two things to keep in mind:
1) It might fizzle and not be nearly as impactful
2) It might be MORE impactful
Well, I guess there's a third...might be just as forecast now.
Gary McManus
State Climatologist
Oklahoma Mesonet
Oklahoma Climatological Survey
gmcmanus@mesonet.org
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