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July 21, 2011 July 21, 2011 July 21, 2011 July 21, 2011
Drought and future drought news
There was little change in the drought classifications by the U.S. Drought Monitor
this week. Currently, 99.99% of the state is classified as experiencing some
degree of drought (D1-D4). I'm not sure where the 0.01% is, but I'd like to
visit!
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20110721/ok_dm.png
I'm not sure how to characterize the lack of change ... good or bad. Good that it
didn't get worse and bad that it didn't get better, I guess. There was definitely
some bad news, however, with the release of the latest U.S. Seasonal Drought
Outlook from the Climate Prediction Center. Drought is expected to persist or
intensify over most of Oklahoma through October 31.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20110721/season_drought.gif
Their reasoning:
"Short, medium, and extended range forecasts, including the CPC 6-10
and 8-14 day outlooks all indicate enhanced chances for below-average
precipitation across the southern Plains states. Based on these
outlooks ... continued drought persistence is likely."
The forecaster adds that forecast confidence for the Southern Plains is
"moderate." Better than "high," right?
The 6-10 day and 8-14 day forecasts indicate increased chances of above normal
temperatures and below normal rainfall, courtesy of the ridge of high pressure
camped over the area.
6-10 day temps: http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20110721/610temp.new.gif
6-10 day rain: http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20110721/610prcp.new.gif
8-14 day temps: http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20110721/814temp.new.gif
8-14 day rain: http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20110721/814prcp.new.gif
For the August outlook, the drought is expected to increase the chances of
below normal precipitation and above normal temperatures across most of the
state. Northwestern Oklahoma is covered by the dreaded "EC - Equal Chances"
designation, meaning the forecaster had little confidence in making a forecast
for that area.
August temps: http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20110721/aug-temps.gif
August rain: http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20110721/aug-rain.gif
The lack of soil moisture (due to drought) is a driver in those outlooks. As
mentioned many times, those soil moisture deficits (and lack of green
vegetation) help to amplify normal summer heat. It can also lessen the amount
of local moisture available.
Another important factor ... IT'S SUMMER!
Gary McManus
Associate State Climatologist
Oklahoma Climatological Survey
(405) 325-2253
gmcmanus@mesonet.org
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