MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... September 20, 2012 September 20, 2012 September 20, 2012 September 20, 2012
New drought map, same old colors
There were improvements for Oklahoma in this week's U.S. Drought Monitor map. Going from exceptional to extreme drought IS a step in the right direction, sort of like being upgraded from "critical" to "serious" in medical terms. The trouble is, even at serious, you are still acutely ill. But again, at least it is some improvement. The latest map shows those improvements in northeastern and west central Oklahoma, but also includes a return to exceptional drought in southwestern and central Oklahoma as well as the western Oklahoma Panhandle.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20120920/ok_dm.png
The result is a slight increase in the amount of Oklahoma covered by exceptional (40% to 42%) and extreme-exceptional (94.7% to 95.3%) drought. The entire state is still covered by severe-exceptional drought.
The drought remains anchored in the central Plains with the worst conditions located in Nebraska, Kansas, Colorado, Oklahoma and Arkansas. Around 55% of Nebraska, Kansas and Oklahoma remains in the exceptional drought category.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20120920/drmon.gif
The changes to the Oklahoma map were made in response to our most recent rainfall patterns. The 30-day and 60-day maps from the Oklahoma Mesonet show the story. Too many areas with large deficits through the hottest part of summer right into fall remain.
30-day Rainfall maps http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20120920/last30daystot.png http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20120920/last30dayspct.png
60-day Rainfall maps http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20120920/last60daystot.png http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20120920/last60dayspct.png
The longer term dryness serves as the backdrop, going back to May of this year and encompassing most of Oklahoma's primary rainy season. The statewide average since May 1 is 8.98 inches, 8.41 inches below normal and the driest such period in Oklahoma dating back to at least 1921.
May 1-Sep. 20 Rainfall maps http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20120920/may1-sep20-tots.png http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20120920/may1-sep20-deps.png
And of course an even larger backdrop for this current drought is the two-year drought wrapped around it.
Oct. 1, 2010-Sep. 20, 2012 Rainfall maps http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20120920/oct12010-sep202012-tots.png http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20120920/oct12010-sep202012-deps.png Parts of the state are more than 28 inches below normal since the drought's genesis back in October 2010. The statewide average through that time is 50.7 inches, more than 21 inches below normal and just slightly wetter than the driest such period on record from Oct. 1, 1954-Sep. 20, 1956.
I will repeat what I have said many times ... the 1930s and the 1950s are NOT good company to keep, climatically (and climactically) speaking.
On the short term, chances for rain look pretty slim over the next five days.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20120920/5-day-rain.gif
After that, there is a hint of some moisture to our southwest, which means eventually it could wind up here in Oklahoma. These maps from the NWS' Climate Prediction Center (CPC) indicate probabilities for above-, below- or near-normal precipitation amounts.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20120920/610prcp.new.gif http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20120920/814prcp.new.gif
The CPC outlooks for October and the October-December period indicate increased odds of above normal temperatures and no guidance on precipitation.
***CAUTION: The white "EC" areas on these maps do NOT indicate normal conditions are favored. They are an indication that above-, below- or near-normal conditions are equally likely.
CPC October outlooks http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20120920/OCT-precip.gif http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20120920/OCT-temps.gif CPC October-December Outlooks http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20120920/OND-precip.gif http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20120920/OND-temps.gif
The latest U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook is fairly pessimistic for the western two-thirds of the state over the next three months, but the eastern third of the state will see some hopes of improvement (with drought still ongoing).
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20120920/season_drought.gif
Their reasoning follows:
"According to the USDM, extreme to exceptional drought covers nearly all of Oklahoma with varying drought intensity across Texas. A relatively dry climatology favors persistence across western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Prospects for some improvement increase across the southern half of Texas where climatologically, conditions do not become drier during OND, and the CPC monthly/seasonal outlooks indicate a tilt in the odds towards above median precipitation. El Nino precipitation composites indicating above median precipitation across south Texas are also considered."
Gary McManus Associate State Climatologist Oklahoma Climatological Survey (405) 325-2253
==================================================
The OCS/Mesonet Ticker
https://ticker.mesonet.org/
To subscribe or unsubscribe from the Ticker
or for questions about the Ticker or its content
Phone or Email the Ticker Manager at OCS
Phone: 405-325-2253 Email: ticker@mesonet.org
---------------------------------------------------
-C- Copyright 2024 Oklahoma Climatological Survey
===================================================
|