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. . . Ticker for October 17, 2023 . . .
MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... October 17, 2023 October 17, 2023 October 17, 2023 October 17, 2023 Tropical surprise? https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20231017/oct24-30-precip-oulook.png I don't know why Mother Nature continues to taunt us like this. Or maybe she's innocent and it's the forecast models? I just don't know. If I knew that I could explain why we Okies like to sit and stare at each other at 4-way stops. Or why setting the cruise control on 63 mph in the left lane of the interstate is so enticing to so many. But here we go. As I mentioned yesterday, we see a system approaching from the west (West, too), AND a tropical system approaching from the south (but not the South). And somewhere over the Southern Plains they appear to arrive within 24 hours of each other, or even merge. However, this is still fantasy-cast territory, but the rainfall patterns being shown from individual model runs are showing a streak of precipitation (and we all know just how painful that can be) somewhere in our area. For example, the European model's forecast through next Wednesday: https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20231017/ecmwf.png The American model: https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20231017/gfs.png The Canadian model (a bit more widespread solution): https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20231017/GDPS.png Last AND least, the Okie model: https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20231017/Okie.jpg I KID...I KIIIIIDDDD! None of these forecasts should be taken seriously just yet, and CERTAINLY don't take the Ticker seriously. Ever. But at least there is some rain showing up on the ensemble forecasts, which takes a bunch of individual model runs and sort of averages them together, like the ensemble of the American model. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20231017/GEFS.png So the message there is don't take any action based on these forecasts just yet, but have hope that we'll start to see some rain show up on the 7-day rain forecasts shortly, and even better...on the 3- and 5-day forecasts. Right now, there's just a hint: https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20231017/7day-rain-forecast.gif As for temperature, we continue to see that freezing threshold broken in parts of the state. This map doesn't account for this morning. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20231017/tmin.le32.png We'll have more blue on that map tomorrow? Et tu, Burneyville?? 31 degrees? Seriously? https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20231017/todays-lows.png NOT so uncertain is the temperature forecast, which looks like a return to SUMMER fall, as opposed to our WINTER fall recently. Heck, we might see some 90s this weekend, for crying out loud! https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20231017/saturday-forecast-highs.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20231017/oct22-26-temp-outlook.png Keep hope alive...but stay out of the left lane! Gary McManus State Climatologist Oklahoma Mesonet Oklahoma Climatological Survey gmcmanus@mesonet.org ================================================== The OCS/Mesonet Ticker https://ticker.mesonet.org/ To subscribe or unsubscribe from the Ticker or for questions about the Ticker or its content Phone or Email the Ticker Manager at OCS Phone: 405-325-2253 Email: ticker@mesonet.org --------------------------------------------------- -C- Copyright 2024 Oklahoma Climatological Survey ===================================================