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July 11, 2011 July 11, 2011 July 11, 2011 July 11, 2011
La Nina? Oh No-na!
Looking at the latest ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) update from the NWS'
Climate Prediction Center (CPC), there is *some* indication of La Nina conditions
returning to the equatorial Pacific waters this winter. That would *possibly* be
bad news for the Southern Plains, including Oklahoma, since there would be an
increased chance for drier conditions once again. I keep adding the asterisks on
key words since a La Nina event is not a guarantee of drier conditions but more
of an indication of increased RISK of drier conditions.
It's just a hint thus far, but here is the latest output from the NCEP Climate
Forecast System.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20110711/cfs.png
Those lines that dip below the -0.5 anomaly mark during the fall time frame are
indicative of a re-emergence of La Nina conditions. Another caveat, however, is
that most of the models show ENSO-neutral (neither La Nina nor El Nino)
conditions continuing through the fall and into the winter.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20110711/multi_models.png
As I've said before, the predictability of ENSO drops considerably during the
summer months. That is good news when looking at the predictions of La Nina,
but it also drops the confidence of ENSO-neutral conditions from the other
models.
Final caveats! One of the factors lending credence to the return of La Nina is
that while the oceanic indices all point to our current ENSO-neutral conditions,
the atmospheric circulations present still stink of La Nina. From the latest
El Nino/Southern Oscillaion Diagnostic Discussion from CPC:
"Combined with the recent weakening of the positive subsurface ocean
anomalies and the lingering La Ni?a state of the atmosphere, the
possibility of a return to La Ni?a during the Northern Hemisphere
fall 2011 has increased over the past month. However, ENSO-neutral
remains most likely into the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011 ..."
Again, just a hint of a smidge of a chance. Summer is a terrible time to look
at long-range outlooks. Just like last year, however, it is something that bears
watching. Watching bears would probably be more exciting, however, so I'll take
the first shift.
Gary McManus
Associate State Climatologist
Oklahoma Climatological Survey
(405) 325-2253
gmcmanus@mesonet.org
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