MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... July 8, 2019 July 8, 2019 July 8, 2019 July 8, 2019
Tropical Magic?
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20190708/saturday-7pm-sfc-pressure.png
What, you want another summer-themed Ticker, telling you how hot and steamy it's been, or hasn't been, or is going to be? Okay, how's this?
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20190708/yesterdays-highs.png
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20190708/yesterdays-high-heat.index.png
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20190708/tmax.ge90.png
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20190708/tmax.ge100.png
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20190708/5day-rain-totals.png
So that's your summer thus far in a nutshell. It's been hot, but not too hot. It's been steamy, but not too steamy. Some hundreds, more 90s, but not too bad. It rains every once in awhile in most places, but not everyplace most whiles. Errr, yeah. And it's going to be more of the same as we go forward.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20190708/nws-norman-7day-temps.png
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20190708/5day-rain-forecast.gif
So why not transform today's Ticker from the vagaries of our mundane summer weather to the sublime wonderment of fantasy forecasts? Good point, it is unprofessional, but we'll do it anyway. Something exciting is brewing in Georgia, and I don't mean the Devil looking for a soul to steal. No, we're talking about a low pressure system that's going to slowly meander its way from Georgia down into the Gulf Coast. Once it gets over those warm, moisture-rich tropical waters, it has a chance to form into a tropical system of some sort...a tropical depression is the goal at this point. The National Hurricane Center has it painted on it's 5-day outlook with an 80% chance of tropical cyclone development.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20190708/NHC-tropical-outlook.png
"A trough of low pressure located over central Georgia is forecast to move southward toward the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, where a broad area of low pressure is expected to form in a couple of days. Some gradual development is possible thereafter and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end of the week while the low meanders near the northern Gulf Coast."
Now once it forms, if it does go ahead and form, where it goes is sort of a mystery at this point. But at least ONE model does have it moving west and then NW into the ArkLaTex and eastern Oklahoma. The good old European Model.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20190708/sunday-7pm-model-output.png
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20190708/monday-7pm-model-output.png
At this point, as stated, it is a fantasycast. But we're throwing it out there as something to watch, because frankly, there ain't much else to watch other than heat indices and popcorn thunderstorms. Our chances for a visit might disappear in the next model run. Or it might start showing up in other forecast models.
Poof! Just like that. It's magic.
Gary McManus State Climatologist Oklahoma Mesonet Oklahoma Climatological Survey (405) 325-2253 gmcmanus@mesonet.org
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