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Record Maximum 96 F BEAV 2013
Record Minimum 30 F MEDF 2005
Record Rainfall 4.77" FTCB 2000

* Mesonet History = since 1994

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MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ...
April 29, 2016     April 29, 2016     April 29, 2016     April 29, 2016      


Here we go again!

 
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20160429/conditional-severe.jpg

Once more unto the breach, dear friends! There will be a *CHANCE* of significant
severe weather today across most of Oklahoma, but especially southern OK where
the SPC has an "enhanced" chance of categorical risk today. 

http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20160429/day1otlk_1300.gif 

Now once again this severe weather risk is conditional...depending on whether
a warm front can make it up this far north, whether convection and showers 
ongoing now "mess up" the environmental variables for later today when the risk
is possibly greater, and the track of the surface low and associated boundaries 
as the storm system moves across. Quoting SPC (their yelling, not mine):

  "FARTHER N ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND ARKLATEX REGION INTO
   OK...NWD ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT REMAINS UNCERTAIN...LIKELY
   HINDERED AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING BY ONGOING
   CONVECTION/CLOUDINESS/OUTFLOW. WITH THAT SAID...SEVERAL CAM RUNS
   DEPICT ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE ERN OK/WRN AR AREA EVENTUALLY
   DEPARTING EWD...POSSIBLY ALLOWING THE WARM FRONT TO SHIFT INTO SRN
   OK -- ALONG WITH AT LEAST SOME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION.  GIVEN
   FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR (near) THE LOW/WARM FRONT...RISK FOR
   TORNADOES WOULD APPEAR MAXIMIZED.  THUS...WILL ADJUST WRN PORTIONS
   OF THE ENH RISK AREA SWD -- TO WHERE THE WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY
   EXPECTED TO RESIDE.  

   WITH TIME...STORMS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS SRN OK AND NRN/CENTRAL TX
   AND INTO THE ARKLATEX AND TX COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE
   STRONGER STORMS IN ADDITION TO SOME TORNADO RISK."

Now don't let that verbiage scare you. That's meteorologist-ese for "if all
the variables come together perfectly, things could get nasty, sorta-nasty, or
just unpleasant." When you see the different severe mode probabilities, you'll
notice that the tornado threat is much lower than Tuesday, and while the hail
threat is as well, that's what's really driving this enhanced risk area. 

http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20160429/day1probotlk_1300_torn.gif
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20160429/day1probotlk_1300_hail.gif
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20160429/day1probotlk_1300_wind.gif 

Here are some graphics from our friends at the local NWS offices to help us
out.

http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20160429/nws-norman-svr-types.jpg
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20160429/nws-norman-torn-potential.jpg
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20160429/nws-norman-svr-timing.jpg
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20160429/nws-tulsa-svr-probs.gif 

Notice that convection is ongoing across the western half of the state right now

http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20160429/current-radar.png 

but not much down across N Texas, which is where we would get benefit in the 
disruption of our severe chances later this afternoon.

http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20160429/us-current-radar.png

And there is some indication of clearing of the skies in NW Texas. 

http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20160429/latest_east_vis_conus.jpg 

Now none of this precludes some severe weather in the storms going on now across
both western and far SE OK. In fact, there is a severe thunderstorm watch right
now for the SE, and also lots of flash flood warnings as well as a watch. 

http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20160429/latest.oklahoma.severe.gif
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20160429/latest.oklahoma.flood.gif

So the key points? Stay weather aware and keep checking in with your favorite 
severe weather source on an hourly basis because that's how quickly this can
evolve, all thanks to our erstwhile warm front that's just across the border in
Texas right now. 

Springtime in Oklahoma. Fun fun fun. 

Gary McManus
State Climatologist
Oklahoma Mesonet
Oklahoma Climatological Survey
(405) 325-2253
gmcmanus@mesonet.org