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MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... September 23, 2021 September 23, 2021 September 23, 2021 September 23, 2021 Droughtplosion http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20210923/20210921_ok_trd.png Flash drought is defined as "...the rapid onset or intensification of drought. It is set in motion by lower-than-normal rates of precipitation, accompanied by abnormally high temperatures, winds, and radiation. Together, these changes in weather can rapidly alter the local climate" by our friends at the National Drought Mitigation Center, which oversees the U.S. Drought Monitor. We need look no further than the last 60 days in Oklahoma to see the reality of that definition. The rains that were so plentiful through late spring into mid-summer abruptly shut off about 60 days ago, with that lack of precipitation accelerating in the last 30 days. Also some time around mid-August, Oklahoma exited its prolonged stay in cooler than normal territory and went straight to blast furnace style summer conditions. All of this is evident from examining the Oklahoma Mesonet data. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20210923/30day-rain-stats.png http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20210923/30day-rain-totals.png http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20210923/del30day_rain.current.png http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20210923/pct30day_rain.current.png http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20210923/60day-stats.png http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20210923/60day-rain-totals.png http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20210923/del60day_rain.current.png http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20210923/pct60day_rain.current.png http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20210923/max-temps-chart.png http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20210923/pct-sunshine-chart.png When all of these things together happen during the winter, it is concerning. When they happen during the summer, it is disastrous. What we've seen is an explosion of drought that has left us with the highest percentage of the state in drought since July 21, 2020, and an increase of more than 38% from just 2 months ago when just over 1% of the state was considered in drought. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20210923/2month-change-DM.png THAT is flash drought, and it's a heckuva thing to catch up to in drought monitoring due to most of the drought indices used to track drought coming in 30-day intervals. So between that 30-day and 60-day period, drought is increasing physically but staying sort of static in the drought index values. Thus, the rapid increase in just a week as more of the drought has started to show up on those drought indexes. But it has been showing up in the data like above, and the soil moisture across the state, which has plummeted right at a critical time for Oklahoma's AG producers, especially those that rely on planting winter wheat early to graze cattle. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20210923/16-inch-plant-avail-water.png So what can we do about it? Well, help *MIGHT* be on the way next week. A cutoff low pressure system is forecast to meander about to our west before finally heading our way later in the week, hopefully bringing increased rain chances. However, remember this phrase: "Cutoff low, weatherperson's woe." Yeah, so since that low pressure system is essentially cutoff from the jet stream and the steering winds of the atmosphere, at least the stronger winds, it will again be free to wander around before finally moving our way. There is at least some rain showing up on the 7-day forecast. Hopefully this will increase as we go forward, but again, still uncertain to some degree. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20210923/7day-rain-forecast.gif The increased chance of moisture is also showing up on the outlooks for next week. Don't expect a plunge down to below normal just yet, unless there are just lots of clouds. probably still in above normal territory for temps. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20210923/sept28-oct2-precip-outlook.gif http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20210923/sept28-oct2-temp-outlook.gif What we are sure of is that it's gonna be hot for the next few days, through the weekend. And windy with lots of sun, so whatever damage the drought is doing now will only intensify until we see rainfall. In fact, fire danger will be the norm until we do. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20210923/nws-norman-7day-temps.png Wish there was better news for this week, but maybe better news is coming next week. Gary McManus State Climatologist Oklahoma Mesonet Oklahoma Climatological Survey (405) 325-2253 gmcmanus@mesonet.org
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