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| . . . Day by Day . . . | . . . February 23 in Mesonet History* . . . | ||||||||||||
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MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... February 20, 2020 February 20, 2020 February 20, 2020 February 20, 2020 Shrinkage? http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20200220/20200218_OK_trd.png BRRRR! It's too cold to talk about, uhhhh, the cold. The current maps say it all. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20200220/current-temps.png http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20200220/current-windchills.png And the snow and rain showed up for a bit, but pretty underwhelming in actuality. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20200220/rainrfc.24hr.png So let's talk about drought. You know, the one hazard we climatologists get all to ourselves after those high highfalutin meteorologists get all the exciting stuff. As you see in the top graphic, yes indeed drought does shrink, and it continues to slowly dwindle in the far southwest where just a small sliver of moderate drought remains. The surrounding yellow in this case, the abnormally dry conditions, represents areas more likely going OUT of drought than entering. The drought in the far western Panhandle remains firm as they haven't received nearly as much precip as the rest of the state. If we take a look at the rainfall maps for the year thus far vs. the water year (Oct. 1-present) thus far, we can see why the SW drought is shrinking, but the Panhandle drought remains unchanged. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20200220/year.to.date-totals.png http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20200220/year.to.date-departure.png http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20200220/water.year-totals.png http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20200220/water.year-depature.png I'm telling ya, one more general rain across the southwest would probably wipe those colors off the map...arguable it could have been done this week if not for the longer-term deficits shows in the water year departure map above. What about as we go forward? Our next storm system is usually right around the corner. Well, maybe not so fast to the Panhandle, but the SW is in luck (possibly). Let's take a look at the March and then March-May temperature and precipitation outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20200220/march-temp-outlook.gif http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20200220/march-precip-outlook.gif http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20200220/march-may-temp-outlook.gif http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20200220/march-may-precip-outlook.gif We see increased odds of below normal temperatures across the entire state for March, but especially across eastern Oklahoma. We also see increased odds of below normal precipitation across northeast Oklahoma, which I'm sure they would welcome with open arms (but not open spillways!). Then for the 3-month March-May period, increased odds of above normal temperatures across the southern and far western Panhandle sections, and below normal precip in the far western Panhandle. Now when you put those together, they don't really tell you much about the upcoming storm season, although what we tell you is that you should prepare for every storm season in Oklahoma to be the worst on record just to be prepared. And in Oklahoma, storm season is January 1-December 31. What it can tell us is that drought could be expected to be relieved and maybe eradicated across southwestern Oklahoma, but persist in the far western Panhandle. Other than that, there is no call towards drought development in other parts of the state through May, which is good if not overly optimistic news. Now in the shorter term, as we exit February, look for a few minor bouts with cold fronts and precipitation, but nothing drought-shattering. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20200220/7day-rain-forecast.gif Gary McManus State Climatologist Oklahoma Mesonet Oklahoma Climatological Survey (405) 325-2253 gmcmanus@mesonet.org
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