| ... sign up for
the Ticker! |
... about the
Ticker |
||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| . . . Day by Day . . . | . . . October 11 in Mesonet History* . . . | ||||||||||||
 |
|
||||||||||||
| Find a particular day's Ticker.
If you're a bit off, don't worry, because just like horseshoes, "almost" counts on the Ticker home page! |
* Mesonet History = since 1994
|
||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||
| . . . Search the Ticker Archives . . . | |||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||
|
|
|||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||
| . . . Tell Others About This Ticker . . . | |||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||
 Share
 Tweet
|
|||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||
| . . . The Most Recent Ticker . . . | |||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||
MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... October 10, 2024 October 10, 2024 October 10, 2024 October 10, 2024 Pass https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20241010/drought-monitor-change.png Drought has nearly quintupled (and we all know just how painful that can be) since the beginning of summer, from 15% back in early June to 70% in this second week of October. Even worse (literally), the amount of at least Severe (D2) drought has increased from 1% to 45% (which we will call quadruplifyftied) and the amount of at least Extreme (D3) drought has gone from 0% to 23% (twenthrusted). Yeah, we made up those words...like "quintupled" is actually a thing. Things are increasingly bad...I'm not making that up. It's not a hurricane, and our hearts go out to those suffering in the Southeast, but we are facing our own billion-dollar disaster right here in Oklahoma, and those damages will continue to increase if we don't see rain soon for this crucial planting period for Oklahoma's hard winter wheat crop. Did you know that the wheat crops have suffered nearly $500 million in losses over the last 2 years? And the cotton crop has been hit by $240 million in losses over that same time. Again, that's not counting this year, which again saw incredibly poor conditions for the cotton crop. In addition to that, in just 2021 and 2022, we saw a $155 million loss to soy, $100 million loss for corn, and a $212 million loss in hay. That's a billion and then some. And remember, this is only the damages directly related to agriculture. When these types of disasters occur, they reverberate up and down the economy of Oklahoma. They are at least mitigated by crop insurance and disaster relief, but the impacts are still profound. This data was provided to me by Katie Welch, a PhD student in OSU's Ag Economics Dept., and are in millions of dollars. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20241010/ag-impacts.png The 120-day rainfall tells the story of the disaster in no uncertain terms. I'm certain of that. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20241010/120day-rain-totals.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20241010/del120day_rain.current.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20241010/pct120day_rain.current.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20241010/120day-stats.png No, this isn't due to La Nina. ENSO (La Nina, El Nino) don't really impact us in the summer months, and the kicker is our mucho-promised La Nina still hasn't formed completely in the Equatorial Pacific. We are still waiting for the sea surface temps and atmospheric circulation to couple, and in fact the chances for it to actually form have dropped to 60% in the next 2 months, but up to 75% for the winter months. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20241010/enso-chances.gif So we keep kicking the ENSO can down the road. The La Nina, if it eventually forms, is also expected to be weak, with a SST anomaly between -0.5C and -1.0C. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20241010/ENSO-strength.gif That doesn't change the strength of the impacts expected from La Nina (tilted odds towards a drier and warmer than normal cool season--November through March), but it does less the CHANCES of seeing those impacts. However, we are still seeing a mostly dry forecast, unfortunately. The next 7 days look like more of the same. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20241010/7day-rain-forecast.png There is some rain in fantasy-cast territory, for NEXT weekend, but you know our mantra...believe it when you see it! https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20241010/two-week-forecasat.png That's ONE model run, and a long way out to boot. What we do know is that we will continue with near-record warmth for the next few days before seeing a significant cooldown early next week. Saturday's gonna be SUMMER, but even today could see records fall in SW OK. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20241010/todays-highs.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20241010/oct10-record-highs.png Keep hope alive, though! Our next big rain is right around the corner...or two corners. Or three. Gary McManus State Climatologist Oklahoma Mesonet Oklahoma Climate Survey gmcmanus@ou.edu
|
|||||||||||||
