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| . . . Day by Day . . . | . . . January 28 in Mesonet History* . . . | ||||||||||||
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MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... January 27, 2020 January 27, 2020 January 27, 2020 January 27, 2020 Models say what? http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20200127/Braums-DEFCON-meter.png Okay, the forecast models have done gone and did it now (you can parse all that questionable english out later, as well as figuring out if I should capitalize "english")! Very reminiscent of that storm that left 13 inches of snow in Ellis County back in October, we have another somewhat potent little storm system approaching the state that the forecast models say might dump a very localized band of heavy snow across that general vicinity. There is at least enough agreement amongst the various forecast models that the NWS has issued a winter storm watch for the far NW region of the state. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20200127/latest.oklahoma.winter.gif And here are the takes from the local NWS forecast offices. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20200127/nws-norman-snow.totals.png http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20200127/nws-tulsa-snow.totals.png http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20200127/nws-amarillo-snow.totals.png But it's a winter storm WATCH. And we're dealing with some uncertainties still just about 18 hours before the action is set to begin. One thing is we're not dealing with a large pool of arctic air here. Temperatures are barely going to remain in the snow-producing zone with highs today in the 50s and 60s before a quick chill down to the lower 30s -- maybe some upper 20s -- overnight into tomorrow morning. We also have to remember our lesson from a couple of weeks ago about evaporative cooling, which may aid the snow production and anti-meltage factors for this system. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20200127/todays-forecast-highs.png http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20200127/overnight-lows.png http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20200127/tuesday-forecast-highs.png Given the moist nature of this storm system and the temperatures barely below freezing, watch out for a robust heavy wet snow band setting up somewhere in the NW, from the Texas Panhandle to SW KS, traversing Oklahoma. It will definitely be enough to have significant impacts if this does come to fruition. Speaking of fruit, watch out if the unusually warm weather we've had since late November have left your trees wondering if they should peek out for spring for awhile and have some green foliage sprouting. That would make for a good heavy wet snow suspension system with some broken branches a possible outcome. That's how we lose power sometimes. Now away from that area, it does appear there will be enough warm air to provide yet another miserable-and-boring cold rain with totals of over an inch possible in some areas. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20200127/2day-precip-forecast.gif Nothing would shock me too much, however, save for lightning which I understand is quite shocking. Don't be surprised, at least too badly, if some of that snow cover manages to sneak farther to the west east or south. In that case, the NWS could possibly expand those winter weather watches and warnings just a bit. So tomorrow's weather is concerning for NW OK. Might be a good day to curl up on the couch with a good book, or even curl up a good book on the couch. If you manage to curl up your couch on a good book, send pics. Gary McManus State Climatologist Oklahoma Mesonet Oklahoma Climatological Survey (405) 325-2253 gmcmanus@mesonet.org
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