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Record Maximum 95 F ALTU 2014
Record Minimum 25 F BOIS 2006

* Mesonet History = since 1994

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April 24, 2015     April 24, 2015     April 24, 2015     April 24, 2015      


95-98% chance of no tornadoes in most of Oklahoma today

http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20150424/tornadoes.jpg

See, only a 2-5% chance there will be tornadoes today, and that 5% is mostly for 
northern Oklahoma. There is a bit of a larger chance across far far SE OK. Check
out the severe outlooks and probabilities from the Storm Prediction Center 
today. 

http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20150424/day1otlk_1300.gif 

http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20150424/day1probotlk_1300_hail.gif
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20150424/day1probotlk_1300_torn.gif
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20150424/day1probotlk_1300_wind.gif 

Those hatched areas are the places to be most worried about. Oh, there's a chance
of storms across most of the eastern half of Oklahoma today, no doubt about that. 
A nice dryline and lots of moisture available, but also lots of things working
against it as well. Showers and storms to our south cutting off our supply of
Gulf moisture and also lots of clouds today, keeping temperatures down a bit (i.e.,
less heat, less lift, less chance to get those storms fired up).

http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20150424/current-radar.png 
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20150424/latest.goes_east.visible.png 

Nevertheless, the ingredients are still there to make severe weather possible, 
and the situation will remain fluid due to model uncertainties right through
this morning into this afternoon. So stay weather aware with the help of your
favorite NWS or media (or both!) weather source. I'll get you started with the
graphics concerning today's severe weather from our local NWS offices. 

http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20150424/nws-norman-svr-timing.jpg
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20150424/nws-norman-svr1.jpg
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20150424/nws-norman-tornado-potential.jpg
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20150424/nws-tulsa-svr.gif 

Additionally, there will be another storm system late in the weekend that will
give us more chances for severe weather. But lots of rain appears to be on tap
for the state to enhance drought relief already going strong during April. 

http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20150424/nws-norman-7day.jpg 
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20150424/nws-norman-svr-sunday.jpg 

http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20150424/7day-rainfall-forecast.gif 

But again, as for today, this seems like a fairly typical severe weather 
scenario we face every spring in Oklahoma. Very tenuous, dependent on lots of
things happening, depends on what part of the state you are in, and we won't 
know if the right ingredients are there until later. 

But that's why you need to stay weather aware, especially the in the far 
northern and southern parts of the state. 

Sound about right?

Gary McManus
State Climatologist
Oklahoma Mesonet
Oklahoma Climatological Survey
(405) 325-2253
gmcmanus@mesonet.org