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MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... April 23, 2014 April 23, 2014 April 23, 2014 April 23, 2014 Severe weather is in the air! In fact, there's bad weather on the rise (CCR kids ... google it). We turn today towards the west as severe thunderstorms are possible across far western Oklahoma, moving east through the night. All emphasis on "possible," of course. Here is the day 1 convective outlook from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) showing the main area of focus, as well as the categorical chances across the area for hail, severe winds and tornadoes. Later, we'll let the local weather service offices better pinpoint the risks and timing for us. Before we look at the outlooks, here's a bit of information about outlooks and how to use them from the Grand Poobah of severe weather warnings, NWS Norman Warning Coordination Meteorologist Rick Smith. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140423/12.things.about.svr.wx.outlooks.1-6.jpg http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140423/12.things.about.svr.wx.outlooks.7-12.jpg Okay, onto the outlooks. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140423/day1otlk_1300.gif http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140423/day1probotlk_1300_hail.gif http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140423/day1probotlk_1300_torn.gif http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140423/day1probotlk_1300_wind.gif There is a slight chance for isolated tornadoes across west central and southwestern Oklahoma, but there's a bigger chance of at least 2-inch diameter hail (or larger) over that same area. So those together smell of isolated supercells. Here's what the local NWS offices in the area are saying about today's severe weather chances. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140423/nws-amarillo.jpg http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140423/nws-norman.jpg http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140423/nws-tulsa.png And here is the rainfall potential from those storms, at least as predicted by the Weather Prediction Center. Remember, this is all based on where those storms will fire and possibly move over the same area a time or two, so this is very dodgy to say the least. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140423/2day.moisture.forecast.gif After that, we enjoy a couple of days of typical spring weather with highs in the 70s and 80s and lots of wind. Fire danger will be high to extreme throughout this week thanks to those conditions coupled with vegetation that has yet to green up thanks to drought and cool weather. Don't believe me? Well, look how NOT green it is this last week compared to what is "normal" for this time of year (note: this does not bode well for the wheat crop) ... from the US Forest Service based on satellite data. And the 7-day fire danger calendar from NWS Norman. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140423/dep-greenness.png http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140423/7day-fire-forecast.jpg About that first satellite pic, that's not to say there isn't a lot of green wheat out there. You can see that on the "regular" greenness map (i.e., what's it look like right now). It's just that once you get out into that wheat, it no longer looks so great. Too much bare ground showing through, again due to both drought and cold weather. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140423/visual-greenness.png Following those nice-ish couple of days, the severe weather threat kicks back up for the weekend, and this looks like it could be more widespread significant severe weather. The SPC shows us once again with their day 4-8 severe weather outlook. Day 4 (D4) is Saturday, Day 5 is Sunday, so that would make Day 6 Monday, I believe (sharp as a tack!). http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140423/day4-8-svr-outlook.gif It's still a ways out there, so there is still lots of uncertainty. But here is the SPC's thinking right now (their yelling, not mine): "MODERATE TO EXTREME INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP EAST OF THE DRYLINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG ERN PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES. STRONGLY DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ENCOURAGE VIGOROUS SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT FROM PORTIONS OF WCNTRL TX...NWD INTO KS. VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW FAR EAST THE DRYLINE WILL MIX SUNDAY AS LOWEST PRESSURES WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF WRN KS. MODELS MIX DRYLINE EAST OF I-35 CORRIDOR ACROSS OK BY 18Z SUNDAY BUT THE DAY5 FORECAST WILL ACCOUNT FOR DRYLINE NOT MIXING ACROSS THE PLAINS AS FAST AS MODELS CURRENTLY DEPICT. AS A RESULT...SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE MOIST/BUOYANT WARM SECTOR AND ANOTHER DIURNALLY-INITIATED ROUND OF POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS COULD EVOLVE." Translation? Somebody's about to seriously mess with this airport. No, wait, that was John McClane's prediction in "Die Hard 2." Second try, watch for supercells out west Saturday afternoon in the Panhandles region and then march east with threats of tornadoes (and hail and straight-line wind, of course). Sunday, it all depends on where that dryline is, how far it can advance before storms fire and whatnot, so folks from western Oklahoma through the rest of the state should keep an eye on the weather that morning. Monday, things SHOULD be east of us. Clearing it all up with help from our friends across the hall at the NWS Norman office: http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140423/saturday-svr-nws-norman.jpg http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140423/sunday-svr-nws-norman.jpg Now while everybody else in the NWC is looking at the threats for tornadoes, I'm licking my chops at the 7-day rainfall forecast. Yes, I'm the dullard that loses focus in tornadoes (except when EF-5s are roaring through my neighborhood in Moore) and thinks "how will this help the drought?". Here's the 7-day moisture forecast from all of Mother Nature's foolishness. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140423/7day-rainfall-forecast.gif That half-inch or less forecast for SW and NW OK just ain't enough this time of year. Normal for Altus over the next 7 days is 0.7 inches. So there you have it, severe weather is indeed on the rise. The time to prepare for tonight's possible severe weather was yesterday. Same for this weekend. So do it now. Stay calm, keep your eye on the information from your local NWS office and media outlet, and stay safe. If severe weather strikes, don't get the urge to sneak a peek. Ignore that other CCR song: "Doo, doo, doo, Looking out my back door." Gary McManus State Climatologist Oklahoma Mesonet Oklahoma Climatological Survey (405) 325-2253 gmcmanus@mesonet.org
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