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. . . Day by Day . . . . . . July 24 in Mesonet History* . . .
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Record Maximum 110 F MARE 2011
Record Minimum 54 F NOWA 2003
Record Rainfall 4.43" COOK 2004

* Mesonet History = since 1994

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July 20, 2017      July 20, 2017      July 20, 2017      July 20, 2017       


Drought on the prowl!


http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20170720/20170718_OK_trd.png

Start with dry, add 100s, subtract more water (evaporation), and you have the 
perfect recipe for drought intensification. Unfortunately, we have all those 
ingredients in Oklahoma, which should shock no one during July. And it starts 
before that. A scan of the rainfall maps going back to 60 days show the areas
where that drought increase occurred. 

http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20170720/1week-change-DM.png

http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20170720/30day-totals.png
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20170720/30days-pct-normal.png

http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20170720/60day-totals.png
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20170720/60days-pct-normal.png

We were not totally without rain going back 90 days, but the difference between
the 90-day maps and the 30/60 day maps shows that somewhere close to 90 days out,
it stopped raining.

http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20170720/90day-totals.png
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20170720/90day-pct-normal.png  

The heat has indeed been both impressive and oppressive, a cruel mix often seen
during July. 

http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20170720/tmax.ge90.png
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20170720/tmax.ge100.png

Let's now go forward from 7 days to 3 months and see what the prognostications
are. The 7-day rainfall map shows SOME promise, but how often does Mother Nature
keep promises when we're talking about rain? 

http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20170720/7day-rain-forecast.gif

That moisture is a drop in the bucket compared to what the July sun will leech
from the surface, not to mention what plants will suck up and spew into the 
air (transpiration). And so how about August? Well, warmer than normal is more
probable. No clear indication for the precip.

http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20170720/aug-temp-outlook.gif
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20170720/aug-precip-outlook.gif

How about we go out to October? Many of you would like that to escape the 
rest of July and August (and parts of September)...good luck! But, the common
theme in all these outlooks is increased odds of above normal temps. But in this
case, we also get the odds on our side for some above normal moisture, especially
in southern OK. 

http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20170720/aug-oct-temp-outlook.gif
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20170720/aug-oct-precip-outlook.gif 

Some good news? Well, that arrives on Monday. We hope.

http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20170720/monday-forecast-highs.png

Gary McManus
State Climatologist
Oklahoma Mesonet
Oklahoma Climatological Survey
(405) 325-2253
gmcmanus@mesonet.org