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Record Maximum 83 F MANG 2015
Record Minimum -1 F BUFF 2009
Record Rainfall 2.87" TIPT 2010

* Mesonet History = since 1994

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January 27, 2020   January 27, 2020   January 27, 2020   January 27, 2020    


Models say what?


http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20200127/Braums-DEFCON-meter.png

Okay, the forecast models have done gone and did it now (you can parse all that 
questionable english out later, as well as figuring out if I should capitalize
"english")! Very reminiscent of that storm that left 13 inches of snow in 
Ellis County back in October, we have another somewhat potent little storm 
system approaching the state that the forecast models say might dump a very 
localized band of heavy snow across that general vicinity. There is at least 
enough agreement amongst the various forecast models that the NWS has issued a
winter storm watch for the far NW region of the state. 

http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20200127/latest.oklahoma.winter.gif

And here are the takes from the local NWS forecast offices.

http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20200127/nws-norman-snow.totals.png

http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20200127/nws-tulsa-snow.totals.png

http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20200127/nws-amarillo-snow.totals.png

But it's a winter storm WATCH. And we're dealing with some uncertainties still
just about 18 hours before the action is set to begin. One thing is we're not 
dealing with a large pool of arctic air here. Temperatures are barely going to
remain in the snow-producing zone with highs today in the 50s and 60s before
a quick chill down to the lower 30s -- maybe some upper 20s -- overnight
into tomorrow morning. We also have to remember our lesson from a couple of 
weeks ago about evaporative cooling, which may aid the snow production and 
anti-meltage factors for this system. 

http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20200127/todays-forecast-highs.png

http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20200127/overnight-lows.png

http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20200127/tuesday-forecast-highs.png

Given the moist nature of this storm system and the temperatures barely below
freezing, watch out for a robust heavy wet snow band setting up somewhere in
the NW, from the Texas Panhandle to SW KS, traversing Oklahoma. It will 
definitely be enough to have significant impacts if this does come to fruition.
Speaking of fruit, watch out if the unusually warm weather we've had since
late November have left your trees wondering if they should peek out for spring
for awhile and have some green foliage sprouting. That would make for a good
heavy wet snow suspension system with some broken branches a possible outcome. 
That's how we lose power sometimes. 

Now away from that area, it does appear there will be enough warm air to 
provide yet another miserable-and-boring cold rain with totals of over an inch
possible in some areas. 

http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20200127/2day-precip-forecast.gif 

Nothing would shock me too much, however, save for lightning which I understand
is quite shocking. Don't be surprised, at least too badly, if some of that snow
cover manages to sneak farther to the west east or south. In that case, the
NWS could possibly expand those winter weather watches and warnings just a bit.

So tomorrow's weather is concerning for NW OK. Might be a good day to curl up 
on the couch with a good book, or even curl up a good book on the couch.

If you manage to curl up your couch on a good book, send pics.  

Gary McManus
State Climatologist
Oklahoma Mesonet
Oklahoma Climatological Survey
(405) 325-2253
gmcmanus@mesonet.org