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| . . . Day by Day . . . | . . . May 19 in Mesonet History* . . . | ||||||||||||
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MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... May 16, 2019 May 16, 2019 May 16, 2019 May 16, 2019 Dracarys http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20190516/storm-train.png Hey, you folks know the particulars of the non-particulars for the next 5-6 days, the certainty of the uncertainty, the uncertainty of the certainty. And bell ringing won't help here either. Friday out west, Saturday morning into central and eastern OK, then POSSIBLY again Saturday afternoon, then Monday night into Tuesday, with Monday -- at least at first, second, and third glance through fuzzy goggles -- looking to be the worst day. And anything could evolve from that statement above into something completely different. Spelled out by the SPC outlooks from last night and this morning. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20190516/spc-friday-outlook.gif http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20190516/spc-saturday-outlook.gif http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20190516/spc-monday-outlook.gif Much of these outlooks are based on "conditional" factors. Friday has problems but if storms do form, significant severe weather is possible. Here's a bit more explanation of the near-unexplainable Saturday risk from the NWS office in Norman: "There are several different scenarios that could be possible Saturday. One is that the showers/storms Friday night/early Saturday will disrupt/ stabilize the airmass over the fa enough that it will be difficult for severe storms to develop. The second is that the activity will continue throughout the day but enough instability, etc will develop for some of the storms to become severe. The third is that the overnight/morning activity moves out of the area soon enough that the airmass over the area is able to recover. The third scenario has the highest potential for severe weather but also seems like the least likely of the 3 scenarios to occur, for now. With the uncertainties, the potential for all severe weather hazards are still possible, although large hail and damaging winds seem like the most likely, if severe storms occur." Sort of the same thing for Monday. So what do we have that is a bit more certain? Well, the amount of moisture in the atmosphere, and the potential for heavy rains. Check out the 7-day rain forecast. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20190516/7day-rain-forecast.gif ZOUNDS! I'll ask again, even as these numbers have grown since I last showed them to you...where are we going to put it? http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20190516/MonthlyReservoirStorage.png Keystone is 25 feet above their normal pool, nearly overflowing their flood pool. Fort Gibson and Pine Creek are also over 20 feet into their flood pools. Kaw Lake is 35 feet above, for crying out loud! Think it gets better from there? Think again. "THINK AGAIN?" How cliche. But still... http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20190516/may23-29-precip-outlook.gif Increased odds of above normal precipitation in late May? Not good. At least not THIS May. May 2011? Sure. Not this May. I suggest we start to keep an eye on the May rain totals. We may start to think about records. We're already seeing our 13th wettest May 1-16 statewide average since at least 1921. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20190516/May1-16-stats.png See that last column, "Wettest on Record?" 2015 is tops statewide for that period with an average of 6.51 inches. That month went on to shatter the record for the wettest month (ANY month) in state history with a statewide average of 14.44 inches. I don't think we'll reach that incredible mark, but a top-10 May finish is possibly possible. Here we go! Gary McManus State Climatologist Oklahoma Mesonet Oklahoma Climatological Survey (405) 325-2253 gmcmanus@mesonet.org
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