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| . . . Day by Day . . . | . . . April 17 in Mesonet History* . . . | ||||||||||||
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MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... April 17, 2014 April 17, 2014 April 17, 2014 April 17, 2014 Rain, rain, glorious rain ... We need it worse than the plains of Spain! I just made that up, if you couldn't tell. I guess any time I see a map like this http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140417/7day-rainfall-forecast.gif I get a bit giddy. Some of that will come today and into the night, and some more on Easter Sunday and the Monday following, and maybe a bit more at the end of the forecast period next Wednesday overnight into Thursday. The more that falls today and then this weekend the better off we'll be, because those rains out to seven days are a bit iffy, just as the forecast sometimes is. It doesn't look like much out there right now, but at least there appears to be moisture falling in the Panhandle. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140417/current-radar.png I see that Goodwell and Hooker have started to really rack up the inches (okay, hundredths) of rain since midnight. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140417/today.rainrfc.png Heck, maybe they'll get enough to reset these maps?? http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140417/mesonet.rainfall.tenthinch.png http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140417/mesonet.rainfall.quarterinch.png In actuality, this will just be a dust-settler. Here you can see the amounts forecast for just this storm ... about a quarter-inch or so up in the northwest. However, that is significant as you can tell from those previous "days without" maps I showed you. As said previously, the Easter storm might be the best soaker. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140417/2day-rainfall-forecast.gif Every bit helps, especially when you're dealing with maps like this, the percent of normal rainfall maps for the last 30 days, the calendar year thus far, and since Oct. 1, 2013. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140417/last30dayspct.png http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140417/calpct.png http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140417/wtrpct.png Lots of unwanted red and orange there, and it ain't even Bedlam. The statewide average precipitation total for the year thus far is 3.34", 4.77" below normal which ranks the period as the 4th driest since 1921. Due to those deficits, and for the reasons we stated yesterday, we have been asking the federal U.S. Drought Monitor author to slowly up our drought designations over the last three months, and this week was no different. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140417/20140415_OK_trd.png At least the differences were a bit more slight this week. The biggest change was the intensification of moderate (D1) drought along the Red River to severe (D2) drought, which changes the percentages slightly. We also saw a tiny sliver of improvement down across far SE McCurtain County. Now we get to wait for these next two storm systems and see how next week's map will change. I'm hoping for at least some improvement across northern Oklahoma. The 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks from CPC seem to indicate we might be in for some more warm and wet weather for the last week of the month, which would be a great finish to a sorta dismal April thus far. Remember, these show the odds of above-, below- or near-normal precipitation and temperature values, not specific amounts. So the darker green does not necessarily mean that's where the heaviest precip is expected to fall, just that the probabilities for above normal amounts are greatest in those areas. It could be somewhat inferred that's where the heaviest stuff will fall, but that's not always the case. April 22-26 Outlooks http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140417/610prcp.new.gif http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140417/610temp.new.gif April 24-30 Outlooks http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140417/814prcp.new.gif http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140417/814temp.new.gif CPC also released their May and May-July outlooks this morning. The temperature outlooks look warm for both periods and the precipitation outlooks are non-committal. Remember, the "EC" in the precip outlooks over Oklahoma mean "Equal Chances," meaning the forecasters see equal chances of above-, below- or near-normal moisture amounts. IT IS NOT A FORECAST OF NORMAL!! It's basically a punt. May Outlooks http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140417/off14_prcp.gif http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140417/off14_temp.gif May-July Outlooks http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140417/off01_prcp.gif http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140417/off01_temp.gif Given those outlooks, the U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook for today through the end of July is a somewhat familiar looking picture with drought persisting through that period across western Oklahoma, drought remaining but improving across north central Oklahoma and drought removal with no development where it doesn't currently exist across the rest of eastern Oklahoma. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140417/season_drought.png What the forecaster is basically saying there is that even with normal seasonal rainfall amounts, the drought is too deeply entrenched to be improved at the end of July across western Oklahoma, but enough to show at least some improvement or removal across eastern Oklahoma. But there is a caution that if it is warmer than normal like the seasonal outlook suggests, then drought could intensify if we get below-normal or even normal rainfall. I vote for rain. Who's with me?? Gary McManus State Climatologist Oklahoma Climatological Survey Oklahoma Mesonet (405) 325-2253 gmcmanus@mesonet.org
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