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. . . Ticker for March 28, 2024 . . .
        
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March 28, 2024 March 28, 2024 March 28, 2024 March 28, 2024


2-class


https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20240328/20240326_ok_trd.png

When I see new drought areas popping up on the Drought Monitor map, it makes me
want to go back to my fallback career if I couldn't cut it in weather (let's just
say I'm a very dull pair of scissors): animal science.

You see, I'm really intuitive when it comes to animals:

Cats--morons.
Dogs--even dumber.
Birds--dolts.
Giraffes--really selfish.

SCIENCE!

I could write a whole book! But back to climate, we asked for an received an
addition of D1-Moderate drought across northern OK where those rainfall stats are
looking worse and worse as we go through the first half of spring.

https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20240328/mesonet.rainfall.tenthinch.png

https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20240328/mesonet.rainfall.quarterinch.png

https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20240328/60day-rain-totals.png

https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20240328/del60day_rain.current.png

https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20240328/pct60day_rain.current.png

https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20240328/60day-stats.png

I guess there would be some debate as to whether this is flash drought, vs. just
plain old drought. However, given the 2-class degradation (hey, "2-Class
Degradation" was my band's name in the Shriner's Circus!) over the last 3-4
weeks on the U.S. Drought Monitor, and also given that the rather persistent
above- to much above-normal temperatures have overridden (might be "overrode"
there...DANGIT JIM, I'M A CLIMATOLOGIST, NOT AN ENGLISH TEACHER!) the cool
season impediment of most flash droughts, I'm a gonna call it a flash drought.

https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20240328/4week-DM-change.png

https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20240328/statewide-avg-temps.png

The impacts might be more invisible in nature right now, although there is
some weakness in the soil moisture showing up in parts of that area. But the
basis for the drought might be more of the meteorological deficits in the area.

https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20240328/4inch-PAW.png

However, given that we're just starting to ramp up into the true warm season
(late March snowfalls be damned), those impacts will start to show up in more
physical manifestations as we go through April...if they haven't already been
realized in that area. Chances for significant precipitation for that region,
and most of the state, over the next week are rather dim despite at least a
chances of storms coming up early next week, with less than a quarter-inch being
forecast.

https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20240328/7day-rain-forecast.gif

Storms in April? Yeah, severe weather is possible.

https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20240328/OK_swody5_PROB.png

There are more substantial rain chances showing up past 10 days, but that's
strictly fantasy-cast territory.

Oh, speaking of fantasy-casts, what's starting to show up in the long-range
forecast models for the April 8, aka APOCECLIPSE 2024! Well, in the early
afternoon of Monday, April 8, 2024, the fantasy-cast models are showing lots
and lots of clouds. This cloud cover forecast from the American GFS model for
1 p.m. that day, brought to you by the the fine folks at pivotalweather.com
shows 100% cloud cover.

https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20240328/cloudcover.us_sc.png

And lots of rain.

https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20240328/qpf_012h-imp.us_sc.png

Now the good news is a single run of a deterministic forecast model 11 days out
is not to be taken seriously, much like the Ticker. This ensemble forecast from
the Canadian model has a mean cloud cover of about 30% for that day at 1 p.m.
right before totality in SE OK.

https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20240328/cloudcover-mean.us_sc.png

In the next few days, things will become a bit more clear for viewing the
eclipse, and that answer might be less clear than you want. Or more.

Are we clear?

Yes sir.

ARE WE CLEAR!

Crystal.

You ordered the code read, and you can't handle the truth, etc. etc.

Gary McManus
State Climatologist
Oklahoma Mesonet
Oklahoma Climatological Survey
gmcmanus@mesonet.org
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