MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... March 28, 2024 March 28, 2024 March 28, 2024 March 28, 2024
2-class
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20240328/20240326_ok_trd.png
When I see new drought areas popping up on the Drought Monitor map, it makes me want to go back to my fallback career if I couldn't cut it in weather (let's just say I'm a very dull pair of scissors): animal science.
You see, I'm really intuitive when it comes to animals:
Cats--morons. Dogs--even dumber. Birds--dolts. Giraffes--really selfish.
SCIENCE!
I could write a whole book! But back to climate, we asked for an received an addition of D1-Moderate drought across northern OK where those rainfall stats are looking worse and worse as we go through the first half of spring.
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20240328/mesonet.rainfall.tenthinch.png
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20240328/mesonet.rainfall.quarterinch.png
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20240328/60day-rain-totals.png
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20240328/del60day_rain.current.png
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20240328/pct60day_rain.current.png
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20240328/60day-stats.png
I guess there would be some debate as to whether this is flash drought, vs. just plain old drought. However, given the 2-class degradation (hey, "2-Class Degradation" was my band's name in the Shriner's Circus!) over the last 3-4 weeks on the U.S. Drought Monitor, and also given that the rather persistent above- to much above-normal temperatures have overridden (might be "overrode" there...DANGIT JIM, I'M A CLIMATOLOGIST, NOT AN ENGLISH TEACHER!) the cool season impediment of most flash droughts, I'm a gonna call it a flash drought.
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20240328/4week-DM-change.png
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20240328/statewide-avg-temps.png
The impacts might be more invisible in nature right now, although there is some weakness in the soil moisture showing up in parts of that area. But the basis for the drought might be more of the meteorological deficits in the area.
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20240328/4inch-PAW.png
However, given that we're just starting to ramp up into the true warm season (late March snowfalls be damned), those impacts will start to show up in more physical manifestations as we go through April...if they haven't already been realized in that area. Chances for significant precipitation for that region, and most of the state, over the next week are rather dim despite at least a chances of storms coming up early next week, with less than a quarter-inch being forecast.
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20240328/7day-rain-forecast.gif
Storms in April? Yeah, severe weather is possible.
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20240328/OK_swody5_PROB.png
There are more substantial rain chances showing up past 10 days, but that's strictly fantasy-cast territory.
Oh, speaking of fantasy-casts, what's starting to show up in the long-range forecast models for the April 8, aka APOCECLIPSE 2024! Well, in the early afternoon of Monday, April 8, 2024, the fantasy-cast models are showing lots and lots of clouds. This cloud cover forecast from the American GFS model for 1 p.m. that day, brought to you by the the fine folks at pivotalweather.com shows 100% cloud cover.
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20240328/cloudcover.us_sc.png
And lots of rain.
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20240328/qpf_012h-imp.us_sc.png
Now the good news is a single run of a deterministic forecast model 11 days out is not to be taken seriously, much like the Ticker. This ensemble forecast from the Canadian model has a mean cloud cover of about 30% for that day at 1 p.m. right before totality in SE OK.
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20240328/cloudcover-mean.us_sc.png
In the next few days, things will become a bit more clear for viewing the eclipse, and that answer might be less clear than you want. Or more.
Are we clear?
Yes sir.
ARE WE CLEAR!
Crystal.
You ordered the code read, and you can't handle the truth, etc. etc.
Gary McManus State Climatologist Oklahoma Mesonet Oklahoma Climatological Survey gmcmanus@mesonet.org
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