Ticker for March 3, 2020

                
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March 3, 2020      March 3, 2020      March 3, 2020      March 3, 2020


Freeze away (far away)!




Well, the answer for much of northern Oklahoma is "probably not." And if we look
at the average date of last freeze, you'd probably say the same for most of the
state, if not all.



Heck, those average dates don't even begin until late March. But remember, we're
talking about averages here. And boy do I know average! Okay, below average, but
I try hard and darn it, that has to count for something. My scalp quit trying
years ago, however, but I digress.

Within those averages are last freezes that occurred in February, and freezes
that occurred as late as May. Idabel, for example, has seen a last spring freeze
as early as February 19 (back in 2000). Well, I guess that'd make it a last
winter freeze, but you get the idea. Kenton, in the far western Panhandle, has
seen a last spring freeze as late as May 29. So again, within those averages are
years which saw some really early last freezes, but also some really late last
freezes.

Let's take a look at OKC. Now their record goes back to 1891, so we have lots
of data to work with. Their earliest last freeze in the data was February 21,
1905. And their latest last freeze was May 3, 1954. Here's a graph of the last
spring freezes and earliest fall freezes, when paired together obviously
becomes each year's growing season. So in 1905, their last spring freeze was
February 21, and their first fall freeze that year was October 20, That's a
growing season length of 240 days. Their longest growing season was 261 days,
set twice in 1998 and 2007. Shortest was a mere 177 days from 2013 when their
last freeze was April 24 and their first fall freeze was October 19. The
average date of last freeze is March 30.



Here's the same graph for Tulsa.



Their earliest last spring freeze is March 6, 2015, and their latest is May 2,
1909. Their average last freeze is March 29.

So how about this year? Well, for much of northern Oklahoma, you've almost
certainly not seen your last freeze. We need look no further than Friday
morning's forecast lows.



After that, we could be seeing lows in the 40s and 50s. Then we get into the
outlooks for the top graphics. If we do indeed continue to see above normal
low temperatures, and we consider that normal lows this time of year for much
of the state are already above the freezing mark, that bodes well for avoiding
any more freezing temperatures in the near future.

Before we get to bold, too many an Oklahoma gardener has ended up on the rocks
of frost damage by setting plants out too early. That's not to mention the
amount of freeze damage a wheat crop can get if Mother Nature gives it spring
for much of late February and early March, only to pull a switch-a-roo in late
March or early April with an unforgiving arctic blast.

So hows about we just watch it this year, for climatological interest's sake?
I'm betting we see another freeze in the southern 2/3rds of the state, but
I certainly wouldn't be shocked if we didn't.

Gary McManus
State Climatologist
Oklahoma Mesonet
Oklahoma Climatological Survey
(405) 325-2253
gmcmanus@mesonet.org