Mesonet Ticker for May 14, 2026

                
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May 14, 2026       May 14, 2026       May 14, 2026       May 14, 2026


Messing around




You know that old saying, "Mess around and find out!" The sanitized version of
the actual saying, of course. This is a family Ticker. Well, that's what we
continue to do across western Oklahoma with the longer we go without significant
moisture, the worse that drought is going to get.

Yeah, "DUH!" indeed. I never said I was a rocket scientist, but it doesn't take
one to take a look at our longer-term drought maps to determine that things are
getting worser and worserer across the NW half of the state, save for some parts
of north-central Oklahoma. Like the view from our water year maps, which runs
from Oct. 1, 2025, through Sept. 30, 2026. Or in this case, through today (or a
couple of days ago for these maps).







Agreed. Oh, I thought I heard you say "NASTY!" Well, you should have. And I
showed you the view from space a couple of days ago, and other derived satellite
products also show the desperation of our vegetation across the state, even
across eastern Oklahoma where green up has occurred, stress on those plants and
crops continues.



Hope abounds this time of year, though, and as those storm chances go up, so
do the rainfall forecast amounts.



That's pretty hopeful, although we need a heckuva lot more than that across
western Oklahoma. If it even comes through. Remember my mantra:

It doesn't rain during droughts. *THAT'S HOW DROUGHTS WORK* So we'll see. And
remember what time of year it is...more hope abounds next week.



Everywhere I go, the kids wanna rock. Know what else they wanna know, Bryan
Adams? They wanna know about the status of our possible Super El Nino that
could form this summer and impact our weather starting next fall through the
winter months. Well, we got the new CPC El Nino update, and we still have the
El Nino Watch in place, with a Niño-3.4 index value was +0.4°C, just a tenth of
a degree C away from an El Nino SST anomaly, and at least an 82% chance it will
emerge during the May-July period this summer.



And near a 70% chance we could see a strong or super-strong El Nino by the
November-January 3-month period.



Now remember, a strong or super-strong El Nino doesn't mean it will have strong
or super-strong impacts, it means it will have a much better chance to produce
those typical El Nino impacts during the Northern Hemispheric cool season, so
fall through sometime early next year before these things tend to fade away
during spring. For us, that would mean increased odds of above normal
precipitation and below normal temperatures DURING THE COOL SEASON.

There's a lot of sub-surface heat out there in the Equatorial Pacific. A LOT!
Like Godzilla-a-lot. But to quote the CPC on the prospects of all that heat
actually making it to the surface where it can then help produce a super-strong
El Nino:

"The strongest El Niño events in the historical record are characterized by
significant ocean-atmosphere coupling through the summer, and it remains to be
seen whether this occurs in 2026."

So we'll remain to be watching. Errr, we'll wait and see (or sea, in this
instance).

Gary McManus
State Climatologist
Oklahoma Mesonet
Oklahoma Climate Survey
gmcmanus@ou.edu
                

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