Mesonet Ticker for March 13, 2025

                
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March 13, 2025     March 13, 2025     March 13, 2025     March 13, 2025







"I felt the fire weather was going to be critical on Friday."

"Extremely critical?"

"Is there any other kind?"

That's a scene from my screenplay about a volunteer fire department in western
Oklahoma facing a day like tomorrow entitled: "A Few Bad Fires." Scroll to the
bottom for a synopsis. Read what's in between if'n you like.

So we have what some are calling a "bomb cyclone" moving into Kansas tomorrow. A
bomb cyclone is a surface low pressure system that has undergone "bombogenesis."

Clear as mud, right?

Well, the term "bombogenesis" combines "bomb" (rapid intensification) and
"cyclogenesis" (formation of a low-pressure system). In other words,  a bomb
cyclone (or bombogenesis) is a term used to describe an explosively
intensifying low-pressure system. It occurs when a mid-latitude cyclone's
central pressure drops by at least 24 mb in 24 hours (and we all know just how
painful that can me).

This is what it will look like on a weather map.



The closer the isobars (i.e., the lines) are together on the map, the stronger
the winds are, in a nutshell. Or, if you don't live in a nutshell, then at your
house.

I feel I'm getting to deep in the weeds. Let's pare it down. This surface low
up in Kansas will generate wind gusts of 50-70+ mph in Oklahoma tomorrow, which
will combine with low relative humidity and high temperatures in the 70s and
80s to produce critical fire weather.

"Critical fire weather?"

"That's correct."

"You said it was Critical. I said 'Extremely Critical'? You said..."

"I recall what I said."

"I could have the court reporter read back to you..."

"I know what I said! I don't have to have it read back to me, like I'm..."

Ooh, it's gonna be a smash-hit!

Let's just show you in graphics what's happening, from our fine friends at the
local NWS offices.









From the OK Dept. of Ag, Food & Forestry's "Fire Situation Report" from today
(I'll forgive them for their lack of an Oxford comma...fight me!):

"Friday will bring a statewide threat for High Significant
Wildfire potential meaning that fires exceeding 5,000 acres are
increasingly likely given fire weather and wildland fuels forecasts.
Rates of spread in rangeland fuels will readily exceed 3 mph on
established fires. Furthermore, conditions on Friday continue to
trend toward Wildfire Outbreak and a Firestorm cannot be ruled out.
Fire weather relaxes only slightly through the weekend following a
dry cold front passage with elevated to near-critical fire weather in
place. Dry-Return Flow on Monday will further enhance composite
fuel dryness leading into another round of Wildfire Outbreak
potential and the likelihood of critical fire weather both Monday and
Tuesday ahead another frontal boundary midweek. Oklahoma and
the Southern Great Plains will have to endure a very concerning
period of very-high to extreme fire danger with no signs of relief in
the near-term forecast."

Uhhh, Firestorm? That doesn't sound good. Sort of like "Strawberry Pop-Tart.

Very ominous. Much like the Pop-Tart...let's hope it doesn't happen.

Speaking of those fuels, our current drought situation doesn't help matters. It's
not the most critical factor--most of the vegetation out there is still dormant
like we showed yesterday, but it can impact those longer-term fuels in the
soils or on the ground. We saw both improvement and degradation in our drought
map this morning thanks to the rains over the weekend, and the lack thereof.





How about some rain? Well, no, not anytime soon.



Don't feel too jealous about that rain to our east. That looks like it will have
a 2-day tornado outbreak along with the moisture. Not that our next 2 days are
gonna be much better, of course, but even wildfires and blowing dust in 75 mph
winds are better than what they'll get over that way.

Time to prepare for tomorrow, as well as for the fire danger expected today (and
through the next week).





Okay, who wants to buy my screenplay?

Synopsis:
When a series of suspicious wildfires erupt across western Oklahoma during a
record-breaking drought and high winds, the small-town Hickory Flats Volunteer
Fire Department finds itself stretched to its limits. Young, wisecracking
Lieutenant Travis "Trav" Dawson, an outsider from the city, is assigned to lead
the crew despite his lack of rural firefighting experience.

As the fires rage, Dawson butts heads with the department’s grizzled, no-
nonsense Fire Chief, Frank "Big Red" Jessup, who believes in fighting fire with
"grit, guts, and garden hoses" rather than fancy new tactics. But when evidence
emerges that some of the fires might be intentionally set, Dawson launches an
investigation that puts him in direct conflict with Jessup and the county
commissioners, who prefer to sweep things under the burnt-out prairie.

With the help of no-nonsense but sharp-witted firefighter Sarah "Smitty" Smith
and bumbling but lovable rookie Billy Ray Tucker, Dawson uncovers a shocking
conspiracy involving outdated equipment, political backroom deals, and a rogue
firefighter willing to burn everything down to prove a point.

The tension erupts in a fiery showdown at a town hall meeting, where Dawson
grills Chief Jessup in front of the entire community. In a now-infamous scene,
Dawson shouts:

Dawson: “I WANT THE TRUTH!”
Jessup: “YOU CAN’T HANDLE A RED FLAG WARNING!”

As the biggest wildfire of the season bears down on the town, the department
must put aside their differences to save Hickory Flats before it’s reduced to
ash. But will Dawson’s big-city strategies hold up against Oklahoma’s most
dangerous fire season in history?

Gary McManus
State Climatologist
Oklahoma Mesonet
Oklahoma Climate Survey
gmcmanus@ou.edu
                

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