Mesonet Ticker for May 18, 2026

                
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May 18, 2026       May 18, 2026       May 18, 2026       May 18, 2026


Temu May




After a 2026 preliminary total of 56 tornadoes through the end of April, I'm sure
many of us were prepared for a nasty May, and I'm not talking about eating at
Arby's everyday (I'm giving Taco Bell a break here, something it never did for
me). And here we are at May 18 with Zero. Point. Zero. twisters during the month
thus far.

Wah. Boo hoo. Right?

This isn't unprecedented. May 2005 had NO tornadoes for the entire month, and
there were only two tornadoes during May 1988. In fact (not fiction), there have
been 26 years with tornadoes in the single digits or less, counting for that
zero in 2005. Now a lot can happen between now and June 1, and after of course,
but so far, not so bad.

The trouble is, the lack of tornadoes has also coincided with a lack of storms,
which has coincided with a lack of rain. So we do want those storms to start
hacking away at that drought before summer sets in, because an Oklahoma summer
with drought in place is usually a bit unpleasant.

Let's stick with today, though, because the severe threat, like some of your
relationship statuses (statii??), is a bit complicated.

Today’s severe weather setup for Oklahoma comes with a giant blinking asterisk,
and that asterisk says: if storms can form. The main severe weather show today
should stay north of Oklahoma, across parts of Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa and
Missouri, where the atmosphere is more likely to do its full springtime
thunderstorm tap dance: giant hail, damaging winds and multiple strong to
intense tornadoes. That’s the area with the highest-end risk today.

For Oklahoma, the first concern is the dryline across western Oklahoma this
afternoon and early evening. The ingredients will be there: plenty of
instability, steep lapse rates, increasing wind shear and enough juice (and we
all know just how painful that can be) to make any sustained storm a problem.

The question is whether the cap lets storms develop at all. NWS Norman puts
that afternoon/evening development chance at only about 20% to 30% in northwest
Oklahoma, with lower chances farther south along the dryline. So this is not a
“storms everywhere” setup. It’s more of a “one or two storms would be a big
deal if they can punch through” setup. Very large hail and a tornado risk would
be possible with any persistent supercell, especially as the low-level jet
strengthens this evening.

There’s also a lower-end chance for a few showers and storms across
south-central and southeast Oklahoma today tied to a subtle wave in the
subtropical jet. Most of that activity should remain elevated, but if anything
can become surface-based, it could also become strong to severe.

The more widespread Oklahoma concern comes late tonight into Tuesday morning,
when a cold front drops into northern Oklahoma and likely pushes a line of
storms southeast across the state. Damaging winds look like the primary threat
with that line, though hail and a brief embedded tornado can’t be ruled out.
NWS Norman notes the QLCS tornado threat may be somewhat reduced by the front
undercutting the storms and by less favorable line orientation, but “reduced”
does not mean “zero,” because Oklahoma weather has never once respected our
emotional needs.

Here are some helping graphics from our NWS friends, but keep in mind this can
and probably WILL evolve throughout the day, so stay tuned to your favorite
media source and local NWS office to stay up with the weather.







And for an extra helping of May madness, far western Oklahoma will also deal
with critical fire weather this afternoon, especially near and west of the
dryline. Hot temperatures, strong south winds and very low humidity will make
for a sharp west-to-east change from “fire weather problem” to “severe weather
problem,” possibly over a fairly short distance.





Speaking of those winds, they could gust to over 50 mph today into tonight,
OUTSIDE of any thunderstorm winds.



Back to that rain, not so much is expected with today's storms, but it's looking
better and better as we go through the next week.





I guess the TL;DR version...stay abreast of the weather today as we look to
see if that dryline can generate some storms, because they could be biggies
if that happens. Then be aware of overnight storms with the cold front, and
ALL DAY out west for wildfire danger.

And let's hope Temu May sticks around. We don't want Amazon May.

Gary McManus
State Climatologist
Oklahoma Mesonet
Oklahoma Climate Survey
gmcmanus@ou.edu
                

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