MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... August 17, 2022 August 17, 2022 August 17, 2022 August 17, 2022
Wished for?
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220817/7day-rain-forecast.png
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220817/aug21-23-flooding-risk.png
Now look here, *I* don't know for sure that these rainfall amounts are going to verify, but they are consistently in the national analyses so who am I to argue? Well, other than being the Master of All Time and Space, but how I think of myself in my own head doesn't really help here. But this would be the classic Oklahoma Drought-Flood dipole, where we see tons of extremely severe drought (or severely extreme drought) followed by widespread heavy rains over time which would then cause bigtime flooding problems. But let's worry about that as we get farther into the weekend.
What we DO know is that it is going to be exceptionally cooler over the next couple of weeks than what we've seen so far.
"But Gary, what about those 90s coming up on Friday and Saturday?" you may be asking yourself. First off, if your name isn't Gary, there might be a problem there. Secondly, this is how this pattern change (what I perhaps foolishly called "The Death of Summer") works...whereas previously we had greatly extended periods of hot weather interrupted by relatively brief periods of cooler (relatively speaking) weather, now we should see greatly extended periods of milder weather interrupted by brief periods of hot weather. At least for the next couple of weeks, hopefully. So if you look at a graph of statewide average high temps this summer (red line) vs. the long-term Mesonet average (black line), HOPEFULLY this is what it will resemble going forward through the rest of August as successive cold fronts continue to knock down the temperatures should summer get too bold again. Take a look at the beginning of the graph to begin June, and summer. That is more like the weather we will be seeing. Not quite that cool, but similar in both temperature and if the forecasts come to fruition, rainfall as well.
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220817/summer-temps.png
Some of you will hate it, and I get it. But we desperately needed a change because the drought was headed in a really terrible direction for most of us. And it can still get hot enough in September to allow for all of those outdoor activities like trips to the lake and whatnot. But the long-term outlooks for the rest of the month continue us in this cooler and wetter pattern.
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220817/aug22-26-temp-outlook.png
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220817/aug22-26-precip-outlook.png
And some of us have already gotten started on the switchover from dry and hot to cool and wet.
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220817/current-temps.png
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220817/24hour-temp-change.png
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220817/24hour-rain-totals.png Today and tomorrow will be mild, hot again Friday and Saturday, then another front and bigtime rains (hopefully!) later on Saturday then extended cool again. Rinse (but hopefully not in flood waters), repeat.
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220817/todays-forecast-highs.png
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220817/thursday-highs.png
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220817/friday-highs.png
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220817/saturday-highs.png
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220817/sunday-forecast-highs.png
There are inherent dangers in this forecast being realized, of course. Most of those heavy rains being forecast are 5-7 days out, the limits of being real precise in their accuracy (or is it accurate with their preciseness?). There has already been something of a dreaded "southward shift" in the heavy rains in some of the models. We will continue with hope until the maps start to look less favorable, however.
Hope is all we've got at the moment...that Drought Monitor map that comes out tomorrow is going to be a doozy.
Gary McManus State Climatologist Oklahoma Mesonet Oklahoma Climatological Survey gmcmanus@mesonet.org
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